XRP vs Bitcoin: Which Crypto To HODL in 2025?

2025 has started with a banger for most cryptocurrencies, especially XRP (XRP), the third-largest digital asset by market capitalization. The XRP/USD pair has surged 23% year-to-date, establishing a new record high of around $3.40 after eight years of waiting. In comparison, the top crypto, Bitcoin (BTC), has risen by a little over 3%, indicating a clear sentimental shift toward XRP.

Let’s examine if XRP can continue outperforming Bitcoin for the remainder of 2025.

Altcoin Season History Shows XRP Outperforming BTC After Bitcoin Halvings

Bitcoin halvings, which reduce the supply of new BTC entering circulation, often lead to significant price increases for Bitcoin itself. These events boost overall market sentiment, triggering altcoin rallies as investors seek higher returns beyond Bitcoin.

XRP, one of the largest altcoins by market capitalization, has consistently benefited from this broader market optimism. In the 2020 post-halving cycle, XRP/BTC saw a price increase of over 113% as the altcoin market gained momentum.

A similar trend is unfolding after the 2024 halving, with XRP/BTC already up over 351%, as per recent data. This sharp rally reflects the typical post-halving “altcoin season,” during which capital flows out of Bitcoin into smaller cryptocurrencies.

XRP’s historical pattern of post-halving rallies is clear. However, its sustainability will largely depend on broader market trends, macroeconomic factors, and developments within the XRP ecosystem.

FXEmpire discussed these factors in its comprehensive XRP analysis for 2025, employing different market and network metrics, such as the potential launch of XRP ETFs and the growing use of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) blockchain via multiple Defi and stablecoin project launches.

Excerpts:

“The XRP Ledger will enhance its support for tokenized assets and smart contracts via its Hooks and XLS-20 updates. In 2025, the market could see more decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and non-fungible token (NFT) ecosystems emerge on XRPL, driving underlying demand for XRP.”

XRP Most Overbought Versus BTC Since 2017

The XRP/BTC charts signal extreme euphoria as the pair reaches its most overbought levels in history.

As of January 2025, XRP’s relative strength index on the three-week chart was 75.68, crossing its December 2017 high of 71.80. Crossing above the overbought threshold of 70 signals that the prevailing uptrend is overheating. In other words, XRP risks undergoing a correction in the coming days as buying sentiment exhausts.

However, if the overbought RSI accompanies strong fundamentals, it points to euphoria in the market. Simply put, traders ignore correction warnings and instead double down on their bullish trades, anticipating that good news will lead to broader demand.

XRP is experiencing euphoria, primarily due to Donald Trump’s reelection as US president and his decision to remove anti-crypto regulators and replace them with pro-crypto ones. That could end a long-running SEC vs. Ripple case, paving the way for XRP ETF launches.

Moreover, XRP could outperform Bitcoin and broader crypto market assets, especially those that have attained and surpassed their 2017 record highs in the US dollar terms. XRP has underperformed most crypto assets since 2017, so its likelihood of benefiting from capital outflows from their markets in 2025 is high.

Key XRP/BTC Levels To Watch

XRP/BTC is testing a key resistance area defined by 2,200 sats and 3,120 sats for a potential breakout.

A close above the red zone (as shown in the chart above) could lead the pair toward its 0.236 Fibonacci retracement line at around 6,050 sats, up 90% from the current price levels.

Conversely, a pullback from the 2,200-3,120 satoshi range could result in a decline toward the 50-3W EMA (the red wave) at around 1,684 satoshi.

Overall, XRP seems to be a better HODL than Bitcoin in 2025.