XRP’s Long-Term Holders Are Accumulating Again — But It Could Mean 40% Price Drop

XRP’s (XRP) long-term holders are beginning to accumulate again after a wave of profit-taking — a trend that might seem bullish on the surface, but history shows it often precedes price slowdowns or corrections.

Has XRP Topped Out Already in 2025?

According to Glassnode data, the “Percent of XRP Supply Last Active 1+ Years Ago” — a key metric for tracking dormant coins — is rising again after a sharp drop during XRP’s rally to over $3 in early 2025.

This modest recovery indicates that XRP holders who remained inactive for over a year are now in accumulation mode. While this might suggest renewed confidence, past cycles reveal a hidden risk: when this metric rises after a major sell-off, it often aligns with price stagnation or short-term drops.

Note that:

• During XRP’s breakout toward the multi-year high of $3.40, the dormant supply metric fell sharply, showing that long-term holders were selling into strength.
• But that trend has been reversing since February 2025, suggesting holders are locking up their coins again.
• XRP’s price has declined by over 30% in the same period, indicating that long-term holders are buying the price dips.

These metrics are reminiscent of patterns witnessed during bear markets in 2018 and 2021.

For instance, in late 2017, XRP prices underwent a parabolic rally that sent them to all-time highs of $3.55 (data from Binance). However, that rally came to a sudden halt shortly after a sharp increase in activity among long-dormant holders, many of whom seized the opportunity to sell into strength.

A similar trend emerged in 2021, when XRP climbed to a local peak around $1.80. On-chain data again showed a spike in long-term holder distribution, followed by a brief accumulation phase

However, rather than igniting a fresh bull run, this was followed by an extended period of price consolidation and downside pressure.

These historical patterns suggest that renewed accumulation after large sell-offs may not always signal the start of a new rally — and could mark the beginning of a topping-out phase.

XRP Descending Triangle Formation Hints at 40% Declines Next

Adding to the caution, XRP appears to be carving out a descending triangle pattern on its weekly chart — a formation often associated with bearish breakdowns, especially when forming after a strong bull run.

As of April 3, XRP was trading beneath a series of lower highs, while testing the $1.95–$2.00 range as support. A breakdown below the support area could push the price by as much as the triangle’s maximum height, per the rule of technical analysis.

That suggests a possible downside target near $1.21, aligning with a key historical resistance level from 2021 that could now flip into support. The declining RSI (Relative Strength Index) also shows weakening momentum, further supporting the bearish case.

US President Donald Trump’s mounting tariff war is further strengthening the bearish outlook for XRP and the broader risk-on markets.