Ukraine Interest Rate

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) maintained its key policy rate at 13% in October 2024, holding steady for a third consecutive meeting amid persistent inflation and economic strain from Russia's ongoing war. Inflation climbed to 8.6% year-on-year in September and continued to rise in October, driven by higher food prices from poor harvests, rising production costs, and the hryvnia’s depreciation. The NBU anticipates inflation peaking at 9.7% by the end of 2024, with a decline starting in spring 2025, supported by monetary policy, softer global price pressures, and energy improvements. Despite challenges, including labor shortages and energy disruptions, GDP growth is forecast at 4% for 2024, with 4.3% to 4.6% growth in 2025–2026, supported by international financing from the IMF, World Bank, and potential loans secured by frozen Russian assets.