ADP: US Job Market Finishes 2023 Strong with Private Sector Boost

Key Points

• December sees significant private sector job growth
• Leisure sector leads in post-Covid job recovery
• Wage growth slows despite employment increase

Positive Trends in Private Sector Employment

December saw a robust increase in private sector employment, signaling a strong end to 2023 for the U.S. job market. According to ADP, private payrolls jumped by 164,000, surpassing both the previous month’s figures and market expectations. This growth, higher than November’s revised 101,000 and above the Dow Jones estimate of 130,000, reflects the labor market’s resilience.

Sector-Specific Growth

The leisure and hospitality sector led December’s job gains, adding 59,000 positions, marking a recovery after a period of slowed job creation. This sector, which includes hotels, restaurants, and bars, had previously been heavily impacted by the Covid pandemic. Notably, construction and other services sectors also showed significant job additions, contributing to the month’s overall employment growth.

Wage Growth Trends

Despite the positive job growth, there was a deceleration in earnings growth. Employees who remained in their positions saw a 5.4% annual increase in pay, while those changing jobs experienced an 8% rise in earnings. This slowdown in wage growth is a key factor to watch in understanding the broader economic context.

Initial Claims Report Insights

The latest unemployment insurance weekly claims report complements the positive employment picture. The seasonally adjusted initial claims dropped to 202,000, a decrease from the previous week’s revised level. This decline, along with a reduction in the four-week moving average and insured unemployment rate, further underscores the strength of the job market.

Short-Term Outlook: Cautiously Optimistic

The current data points to a cautiously optimistic short-term outlook for the U.S. job market. The increase in private sector employment and the reduction in unemployment claims suggest a continuing robust labor market. However, the slowing wage growth rate presents an area for close monitoring, as it could have broader implications for consumer spending and inflation.