EIA: Crude Oil Inventories Up 3.6M Barrels, Defy 2.6M Draw Estimate

Commercial Petroleum Inventories

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, increased by 3.6 million barrels, totaling 460.7 million barrels. This inventory level is about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels, aligning with the five-year average.

However, distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels and are about 9% below the five-year average. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.1 million barrels and are 11% above the five-year average. Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories climbed by 8.2 million barrels last week. Notably, traders were anticipating a drawdown of 2.6 million barrels ahead of this report, adding a layer of surprise to the actual inventory build.

Crude Oil Refinery Inputs

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.5 million barrels per day for the week ending June 21, 2024, marking a decrease of 234,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. Refineries operated at 92.2% of their operable capacity. Gasoline production saw a decline, averaging 9.9 million barrels per day, whereas distillate fuel production rose to an average of 4.9 million barrels per day.

Crude Oil and Product Imports

The United States imported an average of 6.6 million barrels of crude oil per day last week, a reduction of 443,000 barrels per day from the preceding week. However, over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 7.3 million barrels per day, reflecting a 13.7% increase from the same period last year. Motor gasoline imports, including finished gasoline and blending components, averaged 762,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 133,000 barrels per day.

Products Supplied

Total products supplied over the last four weeks averaged 20.4 million barrels per day, a slight increase of 0.8% from the same period last year. Motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.1 million barrels per day, a 2.0% decrease from last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels per day, down by 1.0%. Jet fuel product supplied saw a marginal increase of 0.1% compared to the same four-week period last year.

Market Forecast

The data suggests a mixed outlook for the crude oil market. The increase in commercial crude oil inventories coupled with a decline in refinery inputs and gasoline production indicates potential downward pressure on crude prices. However, the rise in distillate fuel production and stable product supply metrics offer some bullish counterpoints. Overall, the market sentiment appears cautiously bearish, with inventory builds and reduced demand likely exerting pressure on prices in the near term.