Five Things to Know in Crypto This Week: Lawmakers Put Cryptos in View

Key Insights:

• It is a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with economic indicators from the US and China likely to move the dial.
• Republican Digital Asset Market Structure Draft Bill could draw anti-crypto rhetoric from the other side of the aisle.
• XRP price movement will hinge on sentiment toward the SEC v Ripple case as the release date of the Hinman speech-related documents approaches.

US and China Economic Indicators

It is a busy week ahead on the economic calendar. Following the US Jobs Report, the market will focus on the US services sector. The all-important ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will draw interest on Monday. A sharp fall in service sector activity would fuel recessionary fears.

However, investors also need to consider economic data from China. We have seen increased market sensitivity to the China numbers, with the Chinese economy disappointing after the zero-COVID policy shift.

The Caixin services PMI (Mon), trade data (Wed), and inflation numbers (Thurs) need consideration.

It is a double-edged sword for the crypto market. On the one hand, signs of a US hard landing would be bearish. However, on the other, a more hawkish Fed would test buyer appetite.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a June interest rate hike rose from 20.4% to 25.3%. One week earlier, the chance of a 25-basis point hike stood at 64.2%.

June 6 House Committee on Agriculture hearing on Digital Assets

The US Committee on Agriculture will hold a hearing on The Future of Digital Assets: Providing Clarity for Digital Asset Spot Markets this Tuesday.

Chairman of the Committee on Agriculture GT Thompson will Chair the meeting, with the issue of regulation becoming a high priority outside of the US administration.

The US crypto regulatory landscape has incentivized leading crypto players to expand beyond US borders, taking innovation offshore. Ripple and Coinbase (COIN) are among the prominent names to respond to the US Administration’s anti-crypto rhetoric and the SEC’s regulation-by-enforcement mantra.

Head of Policy at Ripple Susan Friedman had this to say about the Tuesday hearing,

“While the upcoming June 13 HFSC hearing is an important one for crypto, the one being held next week by the House Committee on Agriculture is equally so. Congressman GT Thompson has been a steadfast supporter of the call for clarity in this space.”

SEC v Ripple

Investor interest in the ongoing SEC v Ripple will likely intensify this week. The SEC will release unredacted versions of the infamous William Hinman speech-related documents on June 13. Having failed to shield the speech-related documents from public scrutiny, the XRP community remains hopeful of a favorable settlement.

While some view an outright Ripple victory as the best outcome, such an eventuality could lead to more years of litigation, with the SEC likely to appeal a Ripple win. In contrast, a settlement would end over two years of litigation and provide the digital asset space with a clean slate to move forward. We expect market reaction to any hints of a settlement.

XRP is up 8.05% to $0.52143 this week versus the crypto market, which is down 1.83% to $1,106 billion.

ETH Staking Statistics and Development Updates

On Thursday, ETH staking inflows hit an ATH of 404,704 ETH, with the net staking balance surging 422% to a surplus of 400,290 ETH. The new ATH should be a boon for ETH. However, the surge failed to bring $2,000 into play.

This week, another upswing in staking inflows and risk on sentiment could see ETH return to $2,000 for the first time since May 6.

However, Ethereum network updates will also need consideration. Ethereum developers are reportedly preparing to launch their next official test network for EIP 4844, which aims to improve scalability.

ETH joins the broader market in the red this week, falling by 0.83% to $1,893.

Democrat Counter to the Digital Asset Market Structure Draft Bill

Following the release of the Digital Asset Market Structure Draft Bill, investors may need to grapple with reaction from the US Administration and SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

Significantly, an increase in anti-crypto rhetoric would test buyer appetite. The progress of the Digital Asset Market Structure Bill will hinge on bipartisan support, which remains an unlikely proposition based on recent commentary.

On Friday, US President Joe Biden signed the US Debt Limit Suspension Bill, ensuring the US avoids a Monday default. The Administration could redirect its attention to the digital asset space amidst increasing Republican lawmaker activity.