German Trade Surplus Unexpectedly Narrows Despite Rising Exports

It is a relatively quiet day on the European economic calendar. This morning, German trade data drew interest.

In February, the German trade surplus narrowed from €16.7 billion to €16.0 billion versus a forecasted €17.0 billion.

According to Destatis,

• Exports increased by 4.0% from the previous month, while imports rose by 4.6%.
• Germany exported €136.7 billion worth of goods while importing €120.7 billion in February.
• Exports to EU member states rose by 2.0%, while imports jumped by 5.1%.
• German exports to euro area countries increased by 1.6%, while imports rose by 3.3%.
• Trade data with non-EU countries was upbeat, with exports surging by 6.6% and imports up 4.0%.
• Notably, export to the US increased by 9.4%, with exports to China rising by 10.2%.

Following the German manufacturing PMI decline in March, the devil was in the details. While the trade surplus narrowed, strong exports and imports were bullish signals.

EUR/USD Reaction to German Trade Data

Ahead of the German trade figures, the EUR/USD rose to an early high of $1.09098 before falling to a pre-stat low of $1.08828.

However, in response to the German trade data, the EUR/USD fell to a low of $1.08853 before rising to a high of $1.08925.

This morning, the EUR/USD was down 0.11% to $1.08909w

Next Up

Spanish unemployment figures and the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results are due this morning. The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results should garner more interest.

Investors should also consider ECB member speeches, with the German economy in focus. However, no ECB Executive Board members are due to speak today, leaving chatter with the media to influence.

Looking ahead to the US session, it is a relatively busy day on the US economic calendar. The US JOLTs Job Openings report and factory orders will be in focus. However, barring a sharp decline in factory orders, the JOLTs Job Openings report should have more impact ahead of the ADP nonfarm employment change (Wed) and US Jobs Report (Fri).

Investors should also monitor Fed chatter on monetary policy and the US economy.