German Wholesale Prices Down 2.9% Compared with June 2022

Highlights

• Inflation was in the spotlight again this morning, with German wholesale inflation figures drawing interest.
• The German wholesale price index fell by 2.9% year-over-year in June.
• Later today, Eurozone trade data will also need consideration before the US session.

It is a relatively busy day ahead on the European economic calendar. German wholesale inflation figures were in focus this morning. The weak demand environment has weighed on output prices, sparking fears of a deeper ECB-fueled economic recession.

German wholesale inflation figures provided little comfort. In June, the German wholesale price index fell by 2.9% year-over-year versus a forecasted 1.2% decline. Wholesale prices declined by 2.6% in May.

According to Destatis,

• Wholesale prices of mineral oil products had the most marked impact on the wholesale price index, tumbling by 22.7% year-over-year.
• There were also significant declines in wholesale prices for waste and scrap (-31.7%), grain, unmanufactured tobacco, seeds, & animal seeds (-28.4%), and metals & ores (-20.8%).
• However, prices for fruit and vegetables were up 29.2%.
• There were also wholesale price increases for live animals (+20.7%) and construction materials & mineral construction elements (+7.7%).

While the wholesale price index fell just 0.2% in June, month-on-month, the latest report gives the ECB more food for thought as demand continues to impact pricing.

EUR/USD Reaction to German Wholesale Inflation

Ahead of the German wholesale inflation numbers, the EUR/USD fell to an early low of $1.12135 before rising to a pre-stat high of $1.12432.

However, in response to the wholesale inflation numbers, the EUR/USD rose from $1.12193 to a post-stat high of $1.12255.

This morning, the EUR/USD was down 0.02% to $1.12247.

Next Up

Later today, Eurozone trade data will also move the dial. While the Fed looks set to end its monetary policy tightening cycle, the ECB looks set to continue beyond the summer.

However, US economic indicators have eased fears of a US recession, contrasting with the euro area macroeconomic environment.

Earlier this week, trade data from China suggests deteriorating global trade terms. Economists forecast the Eurozone trade deficit to narrow from €11.7 billion to €7.6 billion in May.

ECB commentary will also need consideration. ECB Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos is on the calendar to speak today with investors looking for post-summer forward guidance.

It is a relatively busy day on the US economic calendar. US import and export price numbers for June will draw interest ahead of prelim Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures.

With inflation the hot topic of this week, we expect the import and export price index figures to garner more interest than usual. However, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report will have more impact. Economists forecast the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index to increase from 64.4 to 65.5 in July.

This week, the US CPI Report, Producer Price Index numbers, and jobless claims impacted sentiment toward the Fed monetary policy outlook.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point July Fed rate hike was 92.4% versus 94.2% on Wednesday. Significantly, the chances of the Fed lifting rates to 5.75% in September stood at 11.1%, down from 13.2% on Wednesday.