SP500 tested session lows as traders bet on a more hawkish Fed.
On October 3, U.S. released JOLTs Job Openings report for August. The report indicated that the number of job openings increased to 9.6 million in August, compared to analyst consensus of 8.8 million.
The biggest increase was in professional and business services (+509,000), followed by finance and insurance (+96,000), state and local government education (+76,000), nondurable goods manufacturing (+59,000), and federal government (+31,000).
The jobs report has significantly exceeded analyst expectations and pushed Treasury yields to new highs. FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 37.6% probability that Fed will raise the federal funds rate by 25 bps at the meeting in December, but it looks that most traders believe that another rate hike is inevitable.
Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index report, which showed that Economic Optimism declined from 43.2 in September to 36.3 in October, compared to analyst consensus of 41.6.
U.S. Dollar Index tested new highs after the release of the JOLTs Job Openings report as traders focused on rising Treasury yields. At this point, the strong job market is a headache for the Fed as rising wages fuel inflation. It should be noted that U.S. Dollar Index has already moved away from session highs as traders took some profits off the table near multi-month highs.
Gold settled near the $1825 level as the pullback continued. The strong jobs data is bearish for gold. However, it should be noted that gold is oversold, so the risks of a rebound are increasing.
SP500 tested new lows below the 4250 level as traders worried about a more hawkish Fed.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Vladimir is an independent trader and analyst with over 10 years of experience in the financial markets. He is a specialist in stocks, futures, Forex, indices, and commodities areas using long-term positional trading and swing trading.