Marketmind: Banks to test soft landing thesis

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

World markets have surged this week on renewed hopes of disinflation, peak interest rates and a soft economic landing – and earnings from Wall Street’s biggest banks now test the thesis.

Friday sees first-quarter updates from JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup as investors assess the fallout from last month’s U.S. regional banking crisis.

Although annual profit growth for the financial sector at large is expected to be positive, earnings for the top six banks are forecast to have dropped 10% over the year – with a mixed readout that ranges from JPM being flattered by depositor backflows to dour investment bank readings for some of the rest.

Markets will be most focussed on bank guidance on how much the March bank failure will crimp lending going forward.

Investors appear to have put the episode well behind them, however.

The S&P500 and MSCI’s global stock index have hit their highest in more than two months as U.S. consumer and producer price reports for March showed a faster drop in inflation than most had expected and as the tight labor market weakens gradually.

Next month’s expected interest rate rise from the Federal Reserve is now expected to be the last and futures see up to 70 basis points of cuts from that point to year-end.

And with China’s booming trade numbers for last month also suggesting the world economy at large will comfortably skirt recession this year, “soft landing” hopes are back in vogue. China’s economic surprise index, for example, hit its most positive reading in 17 years.

Although stock futures gave back a little ahead of Friday’s open, Wall St’s VIX volatility gauge recorded its lowest close on Thursday since the start of last year.

The combination of ebbing bond yields and easing stress is seeing the dollar take much of the heat, with the DXY index that measures its strength against other leading currencies hitting its lowest in a year early on Friday.

And with disinflation and rate cuts expected to proceed faster in the United States than in Europe, the U.S.-Germany two -year bond yield premium hit its lowest since late 2021. The euro hit its highest since March last year.

Dollar, VIX and yield spreads lowest in over a year, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/jnpwylkgapw/One.PNG

Bank earnings aside, Friday also sees the release of U.S. retail and industry figures for last month.

For inflation watchers, oil prices slipped back again as the International Energy Agency said rising global oil inventories likely influenced OPEC’s recent decision to cut supply – noting that OECD industry stocks in January hit their highest level since July 2021.

Year-on-year crude prices are down 23%.

Elsewhere, Singapore’s central bank left its monetary policy settings unchanged, reflecting the city-state’s concerns about its growth outlook and surprising economists who had expected another round of tightening.

The tense geopolitical backdrop was focussed on North Korea, which announced it had tested a new solid-fuel intercontinental missile – a development experts said would facilitate missile launches with little warning.

Key developments that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:

* U.S. March retail sales, industrial production, import/export prices; April University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Feb business/retail inventories

* U.S. Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel speaks; Bank of England policymaker Silvana Tenreyro speaks

* U.S. corporate earnings: JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, PNC Financial Services, UnitedHealth

* Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva meets China’s President Xi Jinping in Beijing

U.S. earnings outlook, https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-MARKETS/THEMES/znvnbjjgovl/earnings_outlook.jpg

U.S. inflation, https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/zgvobjjqdpd/inflation.png

U.S. jobless claims, https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/gdpzqnnzavw/joblessclaims.png

(By Mike Dolan, editing by Christina Fincher, mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com. Twitter: @reutersMikeD)