Marketmind: RBA steady, RBNZ hawk shock, next up RBI

By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) – There will be no Asia Morning Bid on Friday, April 7. It will resume on Monday, April 10.

A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.

First Australia stood pat, then New Zealand stunned everyone with a 50 basis point hike and the next interest rate decision for Asian markets to zoom in on this week comes from India on Thursday.

Chinese services PMI and Australian trade figures are also on the docket Thursday, while remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe on could shed further light on the RBA’s outlook following Tuesday’s policy decision.

Another batch of gloomy U.S. data and deepening recession concerns on Wednesday will no doubt darken investors’ mood.

The Reserve Bank of India is expected to raise its repo rate by a quarter percentage point to 6.75, according to a Reuters poll, marking the end of the tightening cycle but maybe leaving the door open for one more hike.

Economists reckon the RBI will maintain a hawkish stance throughout the year, but rates traders are not so sure – current market pricing points to 15 basis points of easing by the end of the year and a full quarter point cut by next February.

GRAPHIC: India inflation and interest rates https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/dwvkdjrykpm/RBI.jpg

It’s a difficult one to call, and after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s hawkish surprise on Wednesday, investors would do well to be humble in their predictions.

On the one hand, inflation in Asia’s third-largest economy is running at 6.44%, above the central bank’s upper tolerance limit of 6.00%, and the rupee is within touching distance of last October’s record low of 83.26 per dollar.

The rupee is expected to weaken further in the coming months too.

But wholesale price inflation is declining rapidly, and there are powerful global winds shifting in the opposite direction – U.S. Treasury yields are the lowest since September, pushed down by an expanding batch of weak economic indicators, the latest being ADP private sector jobs data on Wednesday.

Wall Street is finally buckling, rates markets are now gunning for almost 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year and the dollar is sagging. Maybe the rupee won’t depreciate that much after all.

If Friday’s U.S. payrolls report shows signs that the labor market is softening, the doves may soon be out-muscling the hawks – in Washington and beyond.

Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

– India interest rate decision

– RBA governor Philip Lowe speaks

– China Caixin services PMI (March)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao)