Marketmind: Ugly duckling

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman Daga

While Chinese economic data didn’t come in worse than markets had feared, investors still couldn’t come to terms with the scale of the economic pain being felt in the world’s second-largest economy.

China’s growth in 2022 slumped to one of its worst levels in nearly half a century as the fourth quarter was battered by strict COVID-19 curbs and a property market slump, data showed on Tuesday, raising pressure on policymakers to unveil more stimulus this year.

Asian stock markets dipped and the broad-based MSCI’s Asia Pacific share index outside Japan retreated away from seven-month highs, and Chinese equities stocks also retreated.

European and UK stock futures, however, pointed to a steady start. The FTSE 100 is just a whisker away from its record high of 7,903.5 points.

Tuesday’s batch of economic data coming up include UK jobs numbers, German inflation and Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment survey.

The dollar inched up from multi-month lows, while the yen held strong near seven-month highs of 127.22 per dollar as markets bet on a potential policy shift at the Bank of Japan.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki vowed to win market confidence in debt management as 10-year government bond yields broke above the upper cap of 0.5% set by the central bank.

The prospect of an imminent global recession is casting a long shadow over Davos as participants gathered this week for the opening of the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting, counting the likely cost for their economies and businesses.

Two-thirds of private and public sector chief economists surveyed by the WEF expect a global recession this year, with some 18% considering it “extremely likely” – more than twice as many as in the previous survey conducted in September 2022.

And though U.S. and European airlines will benefit from pent-up demand for travel to China after its recent border reopening, route approvals, fresh COVID-19 testing rules and not enough large aircraft remain barriers to rising sales, analysts and industry officials say.

For those keen to read about one of the most dramatic periods in recent British history, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has struck a deal with publisher Harper Collins to write a memoir.

Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

Economic data: UK Dec unemployment claimant count, Nov average earnings, Germany HICP Final Dec and Germany Jan ZEW survey

European results: Hays, Experian

Speakers – ECB policymaker Mario Centeno at Davos, ECB Board member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in a webinar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams

Central banks – Bank of Japan holds Monetary Policy Meeting (to Jan. 18)U.S. results – Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley

(Reporting by Anshuman Daga; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)