The U.S Presidential Election, Trump’s Chances, and History

The Latest Polls

U.S President Donald Trump is not doing too well in the polls at the moment. It’s hardly surprising when considering the U.S administration’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Then there was the fumbling over the murder of Floyd George that led to nationwide protests and riots. And then the handling of the protests…

Sitting on Capitol Hill, the U.S President showed just how detached he and the Republicans are from the country.

Looking at the FT’s interactive Calculator and polling data, Biden looks set for an easy win come November.

Based on figures until 29^th June, Biden and the Democrats are set to win 318 of the Electoral College votes. That’s well above the 270 needed to win.

Donald Trump and the Republicans are set to win just 148 of the Electoral College vote.

Looking deeper into the numbers, Trump would have to pull a rabbit out of the hat to swing things his way.

Of Biden’s 318 Electoral College votes, 120 are leaning in his favor, while 198 are solidly in his favor.

This is in stark contrast to Trump, where he has 33 leaning in his favor and just 115 solidly in his favor.

Just 72 college votes are up for grabs. These can go either way, with the difference in polls being less than 5%.

If you give Trump the 72 votes and assume he gets the leans that are in his favor, he would end up with 220 college electoral votes. That is 50 short of the total needed to win the 2020 Presidential Election.

It’s also mighty generous to give Trump all of the 72 votes that the FT classifies as a “Toss-Up.”

History

In 2020, the big question will be whether history will repeat itself…

If the FT’s polls are anything to go by, Trump is set to win the 2020 Presidential Election. That is making two assumptions:

• Missouri is currently leaning in Trump’s favor and is not a solid Red. Trump would need to solidify Missouri’s support between now and Election Day.
• History repeats itself…In the Presidential Elections between 1904 and 2016, Missouri has voted for the winning candidate in all but 3 elections. These anomalies were in 1956, 2008, and 2012.

Then there are the U.S states of Ohio, Nevada, Florida, and New Mexico. These are also considered to be strong indicators.

Looking at these states:

Biden has Florida and Nevada leaning in his favor, with New Mexico a solid blue. Ohio sits on the fence.

For Trump, perhaps Ohio will be the key to the Oval Office. No Republican president has reportedly won the Presidential Election without winning Ohio…

The Markets

If the global financial markets are anything to go by, there is still very little interest in the polls. Or, the markets are indifferent to who will be in control of the football come 2022.

This will certainly change as we move through the early part of the summer. We can expect both candidates to be far more vocal about their policies that may cause a stir.

After Trump’s 1^st election race, it’s hard to imagine what will be on Trump’s list for a 2^nd term.

There has even been the talk of Trump dropping out of the 2020 race. One thing that is not working in favor of Trump is the blaming of the COVID-19 pandemic on China. The other is simply calling everything anti-Trump as “Fake News.”

According to recent polls carried out by the Washington Post-Ipsos and New York Times-Siena College, COVID-19 and Floyd George have been the cause of Trump’s demise.

The Washington Post-Ipsos poll reportedly showed that 62% of adults disapproved of Trump’s handling of the protests.

In fact, the New York Times-Siena College poll reportedly came up with a similar number.

On COVID-19, the New York Times-Siena College poll also showed that 58% of adults disapproved of Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak.

It is hard to call polls as fake news and few would be able to justify forming an alternative view.

The Greenback

For now, the Greenback remains in the hands of market risk sentiment. As the pharma industry makes progress towards a COVID-19 vaccine, will it come in time?

A number of U.S states have hit pause on reopening plans. Only a widely available vaccine would allow the reopening to resume with gusto.

The latest COVID-19 numbers are certainly alarming. When considering the recent spike in new cases across the U.S, the negative views on Trump will likely increase…

A drop out from the Presidential Election race would be an acknowledgment of the President’s failings this year.

Trump has continued to call the polls as “fake news”. If he really believed this, however, then he wouldn’t be talking of dropping out of the race… That really would leave the Republicans high and dry.

Don’t expect the property mogul to give up that easily though… A game is likely afoot as Trump looks to spin is way back into contention.

Either way, the Greenback is unlikely to get too jittery just yet. There are far more important things to be worrying about in the coming weeks. COVID-19 and Trump deflection tactics are two that immediately spring to mind.