The Week Ahead – Economic Data, the BoE, and the FED in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a busier week ahead on the economic calendar, with 49 stats in focus in the week ending 19^th March. In the week prior, 45 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

It’s a busier week ahead.

NY Empire State manufacturing numbers get things going on Monday.

The focus will then shift to February retail sales and industrial production figures on Tuesday.

With consumption a key area of focus, expect the retail sales figures to have a greater impact.

On Thursday, the weekly jobless claim and Philly FED Manufacturing PMI numbers will also draw attention.

Other stats include housing, import and export price, and business inventory numbers. We would expect these to have a muted impact on the Dollar, however.

While the stats will influence, the FED monetary policy decision on Wednesday will be the main event.

Following reflationary fears, the FOMC projections will be key, barring an unexpected move by the FED.

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week down by 0.33% to 91.679.

For the EUR:

It’s a quieter week ahead on the economic data front.

ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone will influence on Tuesday. We’ve seen greater sensitivity to the ZEW numbers of late.

On Wednesday, finalized inflation figures for the Eurozone are due out. Barring upward revisions, however, the numbers should have a relatively muted impact on the EUR.

In the 2^nd half of the week, Eurozone trade data and wage growth figures and German wholesale inflation numbers will be in focus.

Barring particularly dire figures, however, we don’t expect too much impact from trade and wage growth figures.

Away from the economic calendar, a new spike in COVID-19 cases and new containment measures could test EUR support early in the week.

The EUR ended the week up by 0.32% to $1.1953.

For the Pound:

It’s a particularly quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.  There are no material stats to provide the Pound with direction in the week.

While there are no stats, the BoE is in action on Thursday, however.

Expect plenty of movement before, during, and after.

The markets will be looking to get the BoE’s view on inflation and the economic outlook. A shift in monetary policy had been on the cards after the review of negative rates…

The Pound ended the week up by 0.60% to $1.3924.

For the Loonie:

It’s a busier week ahead on the economic calendar.

Early in the week, housing starts and manufacturing sales figures are due out.

We don’t expect too much influence, however, with data from China likely to garner more interest.

Mid-week, February inflation figures will provide the Loonie with direction ahead of retail sales figures on Friday.

While it’s a busier economic calendar, expect crude oil inventory numbers to also continue to influence.

The Loonie ended the week up by 1.45% to C$1.2475 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s another quiet week.

The markets will have to wait until Thursday for February employment figures.

With consumption key to the continued economic recovery, labor market conditions will need to continue improving to support growth.

From elsewhere, economic data from China will also provide direction at the start of the week.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 1.01% to $0.7764.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s another quiet week ahead.

Economic data is limited to 4^th quarter GDP numbers due out on Thursday.

With the markets having already seen 4^th quarter numbers from other key economies, expect Kiwi Dollar sensitivity to the numbers.

From elsewhere, stats from China will also be key in the early part of the week.

Private sector PMI figures for February had shown slower growth across the private sector. Disappointing industrial production figures from China could test support for riskier assets early in the week.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 0.13% to $0.7176.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is busier quiet week ahead.

Early in the week, industrial production figures for January are due out ahead of trade data for February.

At the end of the week, February inflation figures will also draw interest.

On the monetary policy front, the BoJ is in action on Friday, though the markets are not expecting much…

The Japanese Yen ended the week down by 0.66% to ¥109.03 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a relatively busy week ahead.

A Monday data dump will set the tone for the week.

Industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales, and unemployment figures are due out.

Expect plenty of interest in the numbers, particularly following the softer PMI numbers for February. Impressive trade data has raised the bar…

The Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.18% to CNY6.5084 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

U.S Politics

With Biden delivering the long-awaited relief package, the focus could now shift to foreign policy.

China, Iran, and Russia will likely be key areas of focus for the U.S administration near-term.

EU Politics

Following Britain’s withdrawal from the EU, tension continues to simmer. COVID-19 vaccine issues haven’t helped. With some EU member states halting the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine tensions may yet rise further…