The Week Ahead – Monetary Policy and Russia in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a quieter week ahead on the economic calendar, with 34 stats due out through the week ending 08-April. In the week prior, 64 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

Early in the week, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers for March will draw plenty of attention. A pickup in service sector activity would support a more aggressive interest rate path for the FED.

On Thursday, weekly jobless claims will also influence.

From the FED, the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday will be key. The markets will be wanting to get a sense of what is around the corner.

In the week ending April-01, the Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.16% to 98.632.

For the EUR:

The German economy will be in focus during the week. Trade data, factory orders, and industrial production figures for February will be key.

For member states and the Eurozone, service sector and composite PMIs for Spain, Italy, and the Eurozone will also need consideration.

On the monetary policy front, the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes on Thursday will also draw plenty of interest.

For the week, the EUR rose by 0.55% to $1.1043.

For the Pound:

Finalized service and composite PMIs for March are due out on Tuesday. Expect any revisions to the services PMI to be key.

On the monetary policy front, BoE Gov. Bailey is scheduled to speak on Monday.

The Pound fell by 0.52% to end the week at $1.3114.

For the Loonie:

Trade data and Ivey PMIs will be in focus mid-week. On Friday, employment figures will be the key stats of the week, however.

From the BoC, the Business Outlook Survey will also need consideration at the start of the week.

The Loonie ended the week down 0.36% to C$1.2522 against the U.S Dollar.

From the Asia Pacific

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead, with key stats limited to finalized retail sales and trade data.

On the monetary policy front, the RBA is scheduled to deliver its policy decision on Tuesday. Expect forward guidance on the economic outlook and inflation to be key.

The Aussie Dollar slipped by 0.25% to $0.7496.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

Business confidence, due out on Tuesday, is the only stat for the markets to consider. We don’t expect a pickup in confidence to materially impact the Kiwi, however.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down 0.65% to $0.6927.

For the Japanese Yen:

It’s a quieter day ahead. Economic data is limited to household spending figures that should have a muted impact on the Yen. Market risk sentiment and monetary policy divergence will remain the key drivers.

The Japanese Yen fell by 0.39% to end the week at ¥122.52 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a quiet week ahead, with Caixin services PMI numbers for March the only numbers to consider.

Updates from China on COVID-19 and lockdown measures will need monitoring.

In the week ending April 01, the Yuan rose by 0.05% to end the week at 6.3629 against the Dollar.

Geo-Politics

Russia and Ukraine will remain the area of focus in the week ahead, with the markets looking for news of a ceasefire.