Trump, Federal Agents and A Constitutional Crisis Brewing

A Constitutional Crisis Brewing

Across the world, there has been a marked shift in government tolerance to freedom of speech.

While China’s introduction of the Security Bill into HK Law drew condemnation, the U.S President seems to be following suit.

This week, the news wires have been flooded with coverage of federal agents being sent to U.S States to combat rising crime.

We have been waiting for the Republican distraction tactic to kick in and it appears that the administration has settled on domestic issues.

After having failed to make America Great Again, Trump’s new campaign slogan may sound more like “Making America Behave Again.”

The U.S had once been known for its constitutional laws supporting the right to bear arms and freedom of speech.

Trump’s latest moves suggest that these constitutional laws could be up for debate and possible amendment.

Rioting and protests, largely due to racism and the unlawful killing of innocent Americans have likely contributed.

The Republicans and Trump blundered their way through the riots, with the U.S President demonstrating his ineptitudes.

Introducing Federal Agents into states with apparently rising crimes has a number of ramifications.

Firstly, Trump is going above elected governors who have their own policies at the state level in handling crime.

Secondly, sending in Federal agents to supersede local law enforcement agencies is politically motivated.  For the skeptics, these steps have not been taking in the interest of national security…

Cause and Effect

It’s not surprising that the U.S administration has targeted Democratic-run cities within the U.S. At the time of writing, targetted U.S states include Portland, Missouri, Kansas City, Chicago, and Albuquerque.

Other states are also on Trump’s hit list and we can expect the new strategy to gather pace in the weeks ahead.

Ultimately, one has to ask the simple question. Had the U.S administration managed the COVID-19 pandemic, would there be such high levels of unemployment and unrest?

Unemployment and poverty are a bad combination for both law and order. Throw in the unlawful killings by police officers and things get even tenser.

Then, throw in Federal agents reportedly nabbing people without probable cause… It seems to be a recipe for disaster.

If the latest moves are anything to go by, the U.S President has little interest in people’s constitutional rights.

It’s a dangerous precedent to set going into the election campaign trail, particularly when many blame the President for the more than 4.1m COVID-19 cases across the country.

Earlier in the year, I had talked about the threat of a U.S civil war. All Trump needs to do now is throw in the National Guard. People who have nothing to lose, after having lost the little they had, will want to be heard…

Curfews and mass arrests raise the threat of more unlawful killings of unarmed citizens. If Federal agents are involved in such acts, then the blame will sit with Trump and the Republicans.

Not even die-hard Republicans will want to lose their rights…

The Presidential Election Polls

Looking at the FT’s interactive Calculator and polling data, which are as at 22^nd July 2020:

Biden still has a projected Electoral College vote count of 308. These are in line with the results from 19^th July. By contrast to 15^th July, however, the number of firm votes has fallen from 198 to 188. The number of votes leaning in Biden’s favor has increased from 110 to 120.

For U.S President Trump, his projected Electoral College vote count remains at 132. Leaning votes and solid votes remained unchanged at 17 and 115 respectively.

The number of toss-up votes has also remained unchanged at 98.

For Biden, he had a projected Electoral College vote count of 318 at the end of June.

The polls suggest that the spike in new COVID-19 cases across the U.S are not affecting Trump’s 2020 campaign…

In the coming days, however, we may begin to see the impact of Trump’s latest strategy on the polls.

Missouri is currently leaning in favor of Trump and the Republicans. Ironically, Kansas City is a solidly Republican state.

Illinois, New Mexico, and Oregon are solid blues, however.

With the divide, it should be quite simple to assess whether Trump’s strategy will work.

While voters will welcome law and order, losing their rights and freedoms may be a step too far.

Watching the polls in the coming weeks will, therefore, be of particular interest.

Trump hasn’t made up any ground in spite of the pickup in U.S hiring and economic activity.

Nationwide rioting in protest of the presence of Federal agents is unlikely to help his cause.

The U.S Dollar and U.S Markets

Can the Dollar and the U.S equity markets handle widespread condemnation to Oval Office maneuvers?

We may see the Dollar and the U.S equity markets hit reverse. Until now, the Greenback sad been the safe haven of choice. This may not last if Trump causes disruption.