U.S Treasury yields sink in the 1st half of the week, delivering another record low. In the week ahead, economic data and geopolitics will influence.
Mortgage rates saw a 2nd consecutive weekly decline to fall to a new record low in the week ending 6th August.
The fall saw 30-year fixed rates slide by 11 basis points to a new all-time low 2.88% in the week ending 6th August.
In the week prior, 30-year fixed rates had fallen by 2 basis points to 2.99%.
Compared to this time last year, 30-year fixed rates were down by 72 basis points.
30-year fixed rates were also down by 206 basis points since November 2018’s most recent peak of 4.94%.
Economic data was on the busier side through the 1st half of the week.
Key stats included July’s private sector PMIs and ADP nonfarm employment change figures. June factory orders were also in focus in the week.
In July, the market’s preferred ISM Manufacturing PMI rose from 52.6 to 54.2. The more influential Non-Manufacturing ISM increased from 57.1 to 58.1.
While factory orders also impressed, rising by a further 6.2%, the ADP nonfarm employment change figures disappointed. In July, the ADP reported just a 167k increase, falling well short of a forecasted 1.5m increase.
While the stats were skewed to the positive, failure of lawmakers to deliver on the COVID-19 stimulus package weighed on Treasury yields. Dire labor market conditions added to the market angst, which left 10-year Treasury yields at close to record lows in the week.
The weekly average rates for new mortgages as of 6th August were quoted by Freddie Mac to be:
According to Freddie Mac,
For the week ending 31st July, rates were quoted to be:
Weekly figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that the Market Composite Index, which is a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased by 5.1% in the week ending 31st July. In the week prior, the index had decreased by 0.8%.
The Refinance Index slid by 7% and was 84% higher than the same week one year ago. In the week prior, the index had slipped by 0.4%.
The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased from 65.1% to 63.9% in the week ending 31st July. In the week ending 24th July, the share had increased from 64.8% to 65.1%.
According to the MBA,
It’s a relatively quiet 1st half of the week on the U.S economic calendar.
Key stats include JOLT’s job openings for June and inflation figures for July.
While we can expect some influence from the numbers, July’s nonfarm payroll and weekly jobless claims figures from last week will provide upward momentum.
Key, however, will be progress towards the U.S COVID-19 stimulus package…
On the geopolitical front, continued friction between the U.S and China will also influence yields.
With over 28 years of experience in the financial industry, Bob has worked with various global rating agencies and multinational banks. Currently he is covering currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes and global equities, focusing mostly on European and Asian markets.