UK Inflation Rate Softens in October to 4.6% vs. 6.7% in September

Highlights

• The UK annual inflation rate softened from 6.7% to 4.6% in October.
• Core inflation also eased more than expected, raising expectations of rate cut discussions.
• Later today, US retail sales and producer prices will be in focus.

UK Inflation Softens More than Expected

On Wednesday, UK inflation figures for October garnered investor interest. The wage growth figures for Q3 aligned with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s view that interest rate cut discussions are premature.

However, the UK annual inflation rate softened from 6.7% to 4.6% in October. Core inflation eased from 6.1% to 5.7%. Economists forecast inflation rates of 4.8% and 5.8%, respectively.

According to the Office for National Statistics,

• The Consumer Prices Index, including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) annual inflation rate softened from 6.3% to 4.7% in October 2023.
• Housing and household services, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and restaurants and hotels had downward effects.
• Recreation and culture delivered the only positive contribution.
• The annual rate of inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages eased from 12.2% to 10.1% in October 2023.
• Restaurants and hotel inflation softened from 8.6% to 7.6%.
• Significantly, the annual inflation rate for housing and household services eased from 5.7% to 1.9%.

The softer inflation figures may give the Bank of England reason to begin discussing interest rate cuts.

The GBP/USD Reaction to UK Inflation

Before the UK inflation figures, the GBP/USD rose to a high of $1.24994 before falling to a low of $1.24789.

However, in response to the numbers, the GBP/USD rose to a high of $1.24949 before falling to a low of $1.24662.

This morning, the GBP/USD was down 0.24% to $1.24687.

Next Up

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Jonathan Haskel is on the calendar to speak on Wednesday. Investors must consider views on wage growth, inflation, and monetary policy.

Later in the Wednesday session, US economic indicators will draw investor interest.

US retail sales and producer price numbers for October will be in focus. After the market reaction to the US CPI Report, sensitivity to the numbers will likely intensify.

However, investors must also monitor Fed speeches. FOMC member Michael Barr is on the calendar to speak. Reaction to recent US Reports will influence the appetite for the US dollar.