Financial News

Despite a shrinking German trade surplus, exports to key players like the US and China remain robust, reflecting the global trade landscape.

Central banks’ decisions and a slew of economic data will dictate the market movements this week. Investors will closely monitor ISM PMI, jobless claims, trade data, and central banks’ commentary.

The U.S. manufacturing sector is under pressure, but the uptick in the PMI index indicates a slower rate of contraction.

August saw 187K nonfarm payrolls, surpassing Dow’s 170K estimate; unemployment hit a 3.8% peak since February 2022, with earnings below projections.

The Turkish central bank’s unexpectedly hawkish shift in policy helps rebuild credibility in inflation targeting but fast-rising consumer prices will test the commitment to the current monetary stance.

The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI provided brief relief. However, sub-components suggested difficult conditions and narrowing margins.

Traders also stay focused on the consequences of Hurricane Idalia and the potential strike at Australian LNG facilities.

In July, the PCE price index climbed by 0.2%, driven by service sector gains. Personal income grew by 0.2%, pushing consumer spending up by 0.8%.

Eurostat estimates August 2023 Euro area inflation held steady at 5.3%; energy sector improves from -6.1% in July to -3.3%.

Despite economists’ predictions, German retail sales fell by 0.8% in July, potentially affecting the EUR to USD rate and upcoming ECB decisions.

Traders will also stay focused on the military coup in the OPEC member Gabon.

ADP reported only 177,000 jobs in August, contrasting July’s 371,000; “Trajectory is shifting towards sustainable growth,” says ADP’s chief economist.

With the Aussie inflation rate falling and unemployment rising, the RBA will likely remain in a holding pattern, focusing on wage growth and spending.

The report showed that Fed’s policy has started to put material pressure on the job market.

June 2023 shows a fourth month of metro price hikes, with Chicago, Cleveland, and NY leading and a 3.0% U.S. yearly appreciation from Q2 2022-23.

Despite softer July inflation, rising food and energy prices and deteriorating income expectations weigh on the German GfK Consumer Climate Index.

The report indicated that manufacturing sector remained under strong pressure.

The week ahead will be a test for the markets. US nonfarm payrolls, wage growth, inflation numbers are pivotal for a September Fed rate hike.

Market action was choppy as traders reacted to Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Prices moved higher as natural gas storage build missed analyst estimates by a wide margin.