3 Bitcoin Signals Threatening a BTC Price Decline Below $80K

Bitcoin’s price correction is deepening after reaching an all-time high of $109,000 in January 2025. As of Feb. 19, the cryptocurrency was currently struggling below $97,000.

Among the key reasons behind this correction are President Trump’s tariff threats, the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause interest rate cuts and a delay in the announcement of a U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.

Adding to these concerns, three major indicators suggest Bitcoin could dip below $80,000 in the near term.

Bitcoin CME Gap Signals Selloff

Bitcoin CME Futures trading has left a noticeable price gap around $80,670–$77,930, as seen in the first chart. Historically, CME gaps tend to get filled, meaning Bitcoin could revisit this price range before resuming an uptrend.

These gaps occur when Bitcoin’s spot price moves significantly during weekends while CME Futures trading is closed, creating an unfilled liquidity zone.

Institutional traders often target these gaps, treating them as magnetic price levels. The current gap aligns with Bitcoin’s 200-day EMA (~$78,782), reinforcing it as a key support area.

With Bitcoin’s 50-day EMA (~$96,577) acting as immediate resistance, a breakdown could accelerate a move toward this CME gap zone, mirroring past retracement patterns.

Double Top Formation Points to a Potential BTC Breakdown

Bitcoin is forming a double-top pattern, a bearish reversal structure comprising two peaks: $108,364 (Top 1) and ~$108,000 (Top 2), with a neckline support of around $91,659.

If Bitcoin breaks below this neckline, it could confirm the pattern, leading to a measured move down toward $77,509—which coincides with the CME gap support.

Additionally, the RSI is struggling near the 40.76 support level, suggesting waning bullish momentum. If it slips below 40, Bitcoin may see accelerated selling pressure.

MVRV Z-Score Suggests Key Support at $80K

A Glassnode chart presents the MVRV Z-Score on a 1-year rolling window, which helps assess Bitcoin’s fair value relative to historical trends.

Currently, Bitcoin is finding support near the Mean level of $96.3K, but a breakdown below this level could expose $80.1K (the -1.5σ threshold) as the next major support.

Historically, the -1.5σ level has acted as a bottom during corrections, where buyers step in to accumulate. If Bitcoin’s price fails to hold $96.3K, traders may target the $80.1K region, aligning with both the CME gap and the double top breakdown target.

Furthermore, Glassnode’s Realized Loss by Age chart reveals that a significant portion of realized losses comes from short-term holders (STHs)—investors who bought Bitcoin within the past few months.

The trend is crucial because STHs tend to be more reactive to price volatility, often selling at a loss during downturns due to fear of further declines.

If Bitcoin fails to hold above the $96,300 MVRV mean level, it could trigger another wave of STH capitulation, driving prices toward the $80,100 (-1.5σ) support zone.

That aligns with previous market corrections where short-term holders exiting at a loss preceded major bottoms.