ADA, DOT, ETH, and SOL Weekly Review – ETH and DOT Lead

Key Insights:

• It was a bullish Monday to Saturday, with the total crypto market cap rising by $17.0 billion to $901.3 billion.
• However, Fed fear fueled by positive US economic indicators delivered four consecutive sessions in the red.
• Technical indicators are bearish, with increased uncertainty about the economic outlook becoming a crypto headwind.

Monday to Saturday, the crypto market cap rose by $17.0 billion to $901.3 billion. A bullish start to the week delivered support, with US economic indicators easing bets of a 75-basis point Fed rate hike on Monday.

However, sentiment shifted through the second half of the week. US labor market and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers raised bets of 75-basis point rate hikes in November and December.

The hawkish sentiment left the crypto market down for a fourth consecutive session. For the week, the NASDAQ 100 rose by a modest 0.73%, a 3.80% slide on Friday, reversing gains from early in the week. We expect the crypto correlation with the NASDAQ 100 to continue, with US economic indicators and Fed monetary policy being the key drivers.

Cardano (ADA)

Monday to Saturday, ADA was up 0.95% to 0.424. A bullish start to the week saw ADA rise from a Monday low of $0.417 to a Tuesday high of $0.439 before revisiting sub-$0.420. The sharp pullback stemmed from US economic indicators on Wednesday and Friday that fueled Fed fear and uncertainty towards the economic outlook.

Network updates remained bearish, with post-Vasil hard fork project numbers lackluster.

On a trend analysis basis, ADA would need to move through the August high of $0.595 to break through the June high of $0.6688 and target the May high of $0.906. A return to $0.55 will be the key. However, a fall through the October low of $0.417 would give the bears a look at the 2022 low of $0.384.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.429. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA sliding back from the 200-day EMA. Both signals were ADA price negative.

An ADA move through the 50-day EMA ($0.429) would ease selling pressure and give the bulls a run at the 100-day EMA ($0.437). However, following October 6 slide through the 50-day EMA, a visit to sub-$0.400 remains in play.

Polkadot (DOT)

DOT rose by 2.44% to $6.31, Monday through Saturday.

A bullish start to the week saw DOT rise from a Monday low of $6.10 to a Tuesday high of $6.54. However, a bearish second half of the week led DOT to sub-$6.30.

There were no network updates to provide direction, leaving DOT in the hands of the broader crypto market and the NASDAQ 100.

Looking at the trends, a DOT move through the August high of $9.68 would support a run at $10.00 and the June high of $10.73. From $10.73, DOT would have a clear run at the May high of $16.44. DOT would need to break down resistance at the September high of $8.05 to support a shift in sentiment.

However, DOT has to avoid the week’s $6.10 low to prevent a retrace to the 2022 low of $5.97.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, the signal was bearish.

DOT sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $6.37. The 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA falling back from the 100-day EMA. The indicators delivered negative price signals.

DOT would need to move through the 50-day EMA ($6.37) and the 100-day EMA ($6.44) to support a return to $6.50. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would give the bears a run at the September low of $5.97.

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH also had a bullish Monday to Saturday, rising by 3.05% to $1,316.

In a bullish first half of the week, ETH rose from a Monday low of $1,263 to a Thursday high of $1,384 before falling back to test support at $1,300.

ETH continued to struggle in the wake of the Merge, with resistance at $1,400 now the target level for the ETH bulls to break down.

Viewing the trends, an ETH return to $1,500 would support a breakout from the August high of $2,031 to target $2,500. From $2,500, the bulls would target the May high of $2,968 and $3,000. A return to $3,000 would give the bulls a run at the April high of $3,582.

A fall through the September low of $1,220 would give the bears a run at the June and the current year low of $880.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. ETH sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,335. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were ETH price negatives.

An ETH move through the 50-day EMA would support a breakout from the 100-day EMA (1,353) to target $1,400. The 200-day EMA sits at $1,410. Failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave the September low and sub-$1,220 in play.

Solana (SOL)

SOL was up 1.64% to $32.5850, Monday through Saturday.

Tracking the broader crypto market, SOL rose from a Monday low of $31.7425 to a Thursday high of $34.5000. However, a bearish second half of the week led SOL back to sub-$33.

Network news provided SOL price support, with NFT news and news of NvirWorld Metaverse partnering with Solana reflecting increased interest in the Solana ecosystem.

On October 5, NvirWorld announced a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Solana Foundation. According to the announcement,

“NvirWorld signed an MOU with the Solana Foundation on September 23, agreed on long-term strategic cooperation aimed to support and promote the development of NvirWorld’s projects built on the Solana blockchain.

The announcement went on to highlight,

“NvirWorld’s NWX (NvirWorld X-Club) NFT, a unique membership NFT card, was issued on the Solana blockchain and NvirMarket introduced the Solana Blockchain Network in June to support Ethereum and Solana multi-chain.”

Looking at the trends, a move through the August high of $48.42 would target the May high of $95.19. SOL would need plenty of support to break out from $75.

However, a fall through the August low of $29.9150 would leave the June and the current year low of $25.78 in view.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. SOL sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $33.2181.

A weekend bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA was SOL negative. The 100-day EMA also pulled back from the 200-day EMA, delivering a bearish signal.

An SOL breakout from the 50-day EMA ($32.2181) and the 100-day EMA ($33.2376) would support a run at the 200-day EMA ($33.5930). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA leaves the August low ($29.9150) in view.