ADA, DOT, ETH, and SOL Weekly Review – ETH and SOL Lead

Key Insights:

• It is another bullish week, with the total crypto market cap up by $52.8 billion to $1,015 billion.
• Ethereum (ETH) and solana (SOL) lead the way, supported by a bullish Friday session that marked a material shift in investor sentiment.
• Technical indicators have become bullish, with Fed fear abating in response to Thursday’s ECB monetary policy decision.

This week, the total crypto market cap is up by $52.83 billion (5.49%) to $1,015 billion. In the second half of the week, US economic indicators and hawkish Fed chatter had a muted impact on riskier assets.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada hiked rates by 75 basis points and highlighted the need for more. The ECB followed with a 75-basis point rate hike and 75-basis point increases in deposit and margin lending rates.

The moves by the central banks appeared to have eased market tension over Fed monetary policy. After resigning to the fact that the Fed will likely lift rates by 75 basis points later this month, there was also the realization that other central banks are taking a similar line to tackle inflation.

The shift in investor sentiment was also evident in the performance of the NASDAQ 100, which provided cues to the crypto market throughout the week. The NASDAQ rallied by 2.11% on Friday to end the week up 4.14%.

For the current week, Monday through Saturday, ethereum (ETH) and solana (SOL) lead the way, with gains of 9.69% and 9.10%, respectively, with polkadot (DOT) up by 3.79%. Despite the fast-approaching Vasil hard fork, cardano (ADA) trails with a more modest 1.98% gain.

Cardano ADA

For the current week, Monday through Saturday, ADA is up 1.98% to $0.514. A bearish start to the week saw ADA slide to a Wednesday low of $0.454 before finding support from the broader market. A bullish second half of the week saw ADA rally to a Saturday high of $0.524 before easing back.

Despite the second-half breakout, ADA came up short of the August high of $0.595. ADA faced increased market volatility as investors assessed progress towards the September 22 Vasil hard fork.

As of September 9, updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators were ADA price positive:

• Fifteen exchanges are hard fork ready, up from 14 as of September 8.
• Hard fork ready exchanges include AAX, AscendEX (Bitmax), Binance, Bitkub, Bitmart, Bitrue, BKEX, Btc Turk, Dex-Trade, Gate.io, Litebit.eu, MEXC, NDAX, OKex, and Whitebit.
• Twenty-seven exchanges are in progress, down by one from the previous day, with Coinbase and Kraken still reporting upgrades in progress.

From the top 12 exchanges by liquidity:

• Six exchanges are hard fork ready: AAX, Binance, Bittrue, BKEX, MEXC, and WhiteBit, with four in progress, including Coinbase, HitBTC, Upbit, and XT.com.
• Two exchanges have yet to start the upgrade process: ChangellyPro and ZB.com.

On a trend analysis basis, ADA would need to move through the August high of $0.595 to break through the June high of $0.6688 and target the May high of $0.906. A return to $0.55 in the early part of the week will be the key. However, a fall through the August low of $0.425 would bring the current year low of $0.384 into view.

Vasil hard fork updates should continue to provide direction as investors eye the remaining top 12 exchanges by ADA liquidity to wrap up the upgrade process.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bullish signal.

ADA sat above the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.483. The 100-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA converging on the 200-day EMA. The pries signals were positive.

A bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would support a run at the August high ($0.595). However, a fall through the 200-day EMA ($0.483) would likely test support at the 50-day EMA ($0.481). Barring a crypto-meltdown, ADA should steer clear of the August low of $0.425.

Polkadot (DOT)

Monday through Saturday, DOT is up 3.79% to $7.66. Tracking the broader market, DOT fell to a Wednesday and an August low of $6.79 before rallying to a Friday high of $7.93. However, a bearish Saturday morning saw DOT fall back to sub-$7.70.

Despite the modest gains, DOT leapfrogged Dogecoin (DOGE) to move back into the crypto top ten by market cap. News of a surge in social volume reflected an increased interest in the coin. Adding to the upside are network news updates, with a modification to the Polkadot Runtime being DOT positive.

Looking at the trends, a DOT move through the August high of $9.68 would support a run at $10.00 and the June high of $10.73. From $10.73, DOT would have a clear run at the May high of $16.44.

However, DOT has to avoid the September low of $6.76 to prevent a continued retrace to the current year’s low of $5.99. While network updates will continue to influence, direction from the broader market will remain the key driver.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, the signal was bullish.

DOT sat above the 200-day EMA, currently at $7.59. The 100-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA converging on the 100-day EMA. The indicators delivered positive price signals.

A bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would support a return to $9.00. However, a DOT slide through the 200-day EMA would bring the 100-day EMA ($7.42) and the 50-day EMA ($7.38) into play. A DOT slide through 50-day EMA would give the bears a run at the September low of $6.76.

Ethereum (ETH)

Monday through Saturday, ETH was up 9.69% to $1,732. A choppy start to the week saw ETH fall to a Wednesday low of $1,499 before rallying to a Friday high of $1,747. The shift in sentiment towards Fed monetary policy and the upcoming Merge delivered support in the week.

Viewing the trends, an ETH return to $1,800 would support a breakout from the August high of $2,031 and a return to $2,500. From $2,500, the bulls would target the May high of $2,968 and $3,000. A return to $3,000 would give the bulls a run at the April high of $3,582.

A fall through the August low of $1,421 would bring the June and the current year’s low of $880 into view.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bullish signal. ETH sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,623. On Saturday, the 50-day EMA crossed through the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA. Both were ETH price positives.

A bullish cross of the 100-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would support an ETH run at the August high of $2,031. However, a fallback through the EMAs to sub-$1,600 would bring the August low of $1,421 into view.

Solana (SOL)

Monday through Saturday, SOL was up 9.10% to $35.0825. Tracking the broader market, SOL fell to a Wednesday low of $30.3175. However, steering clear of the August low of $29.9150, SOL rallied to a Friday high of $35.9650.

Solana hit a new milestone this week of surpassing 95 billion transactions, with 100 billion transactions around the corner. The surge in transaction rates reflects network success and points to further price upswings.

Looking at the trends, a move through the August high of $48.42 would give the bulls a run at the May high of $95.19. SOL would need plenty of support to break out from $75.

However, a fall through the August low of $29.9150 would give the bears a run at the June and the current year’s low of $25.78.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bullish signal. SOL sat at the 200-day EMA, currently at $35.1680.

The 50-day EMA closed in on the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA. Both were price positives.

An SOL breakout from the 200-day EMA ($35.1680) would support a return to $40, to bring the August high into view. However, a slide through the 100-day EMA ($33.4386) and the 50-day EMA ($32.9650) would bring sub-$30 and the August low ($29.9150) into view.