AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Gives Up Early Gain

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 14.11.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Aussie dollar has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday but continues to see quite a bit of resistance just above as we gave back quite a bit of the gain. Looking at this chart, it’s likely that we continue to see a lot of noise just above at the 0.64 level, an area that the market has paid close attention to as it is essentially the “midpoint” between the massive support level at the 0.63 level and the massive resistance level at the 0.65 level.

In general, we are consolidating and it does make quite a bit of sense that we would see this area offer quite a bit of noisy behavior. I think at this point, you are still looking at a situation where the market is more or less a short-term trading situation, so therefore I would not get married to any particular position, but I do recognize that it’s easier for this market to fall than it is to rise, as the Federal Reserve remains very tight with its monetary policy. If we were to break down below the bottom of the range, though, that could open up a flush lower, perhaps down to the 0.60 level.

If we were to break above the 50-Day EMA, there might be a short-term run back to the 0.65 level, but I think at this point that area will be very difficult to break through, and therefore the market will more likely than not fade that attempt. If we were to break above there, it would obviously be a very bullish turn of events and could be something akin to the idea that the US dollar trend is changing in general.

That being said, I don’t think that’s very likely to happen, especially as the Federal Reserve remained so tight, and of course there are a lot of concerns out there when it comes to geopolitics. In that environment, the US dollar typically does fairly well, so I think that will continue to cause a bit of pressure on this market. With that being said, I look to fade rallies as they occur.

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