Australian Dollar Forecast: Bulls Eye $0.70? Retail Sales and US Jobs Hold the Key

Australian Retail Sales in Focus

Aussie retail sales will influence buyer demand for the AUD/USD on Tuesday, October 1.

Economists expect retail sales will increase by 0.4% in August after stagnating in July.

A larger-than-expected rise in retail sales could reduce investor expectations of a Q4 2024 RBA rate cut. Upward trends in consumer spending may fuel demand-driven inflation, possibly delaying rate cuts. A prolonged period of high interest rates may reduce disposable income, potentially weakening consumer spending and easing inflationary pressures.

Furthermore, upbeat retail sales could support the Aussie economy as private consumption accounts for over 50% of GDP. Better-than-expected retail sales may push the AUD/USD toward $0.70.

Expert Views on the RBA Rate Path

The Monthly CPI Indicator fell within the RBA’s 2-3% target range in August. AMP’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, Shane Oliver, commented,

“Our base case remains for a first RBA cut in Feb (after Q3 & Q4 CPIs confirm falling inflation, but the chance of an earlier move is high.”

Despite the recent drop in inflation, the latest RBA Statement suggested inflation may temporarily decline but is unlikely to return sustainably to target until 2026. A jump in retail sales could align with the RBA’s inflation outlook.

Other Economic Data

On Tuesday, finalized manufacturing PMI and housing sector data will also be in focus. However, these will likely play second fiddle to the retail sales data.

US Economic Calendar: JOLTs Job Openings in Focus

Later in the Tuesday session, the focus shifts to the JOLTs Job Openings Report. Economists forecast job openings to decline from 7.673 million in July to 7.650 million in August. A larger-than-expected fall may fuel expectations of a 50-basis point November Fed rate cut. A drop below 7.500 million could reignite fears of a hard US economic landing.

Weaker labor market conditions may soften wage growth, possibly curbing consumer spending. A pullback in consumer spending could impact the US economy as it contributes over 60% to US GDP.

Other stats include the ISM Manufacturing PMI. A marked decline in the headline PMI may also raise concerns about the US economy. Weaker-than-expected labor market data could support the AUD/USD move toward $0.70.

Short-Term Forecast for AUD/USD

Near-term AUD/USD trends will likely hinge on Aussie retail sales, US labor market stats, and central bank commentary.

Upbeat Aussie retail sales could temper bets on a Q4 RBA rate hike. Weaker-than-expected US labor market data may raise expectations of a 50-basis point Fed rate cut. A narrower interest rate differential between the US and Australia would support an AUD/USD move toward $0.70.

Investors should closely monitor central bank signals and economic indicators, which could influence AUD/USD trends. Traders should monitor real-time data, news updates, and expert commentary to adjust their trading strategies accordingly.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Daily Chart: AUD/USD Breakout Intact

The AUD/USD sits well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price signals.

A breakout from the September 30 high of $0.69420 could signal a move toward the $0.70 level. Furthermore, a return to $0.70 may bring the $0.70500 level into play.

Traders should consider Aussie retail sales, US labor market data, and central bank commentary, which may influence AUD/USD price movements.

Conversely, a break below $0.69 could signal a drop toward $0.68500. A fall through $0.68500 may bring the $0.68006 support level into play.

With a 14-period Daily RSI reading of 66.57, the Aussie dollar could return to $0.69500 before entering overbought territory.