Bitcoin Analysis, The Next Target Is $77K

The news about the spreading of a new COVID19 variant hit the markets globally on November 26 and the cryptocurrency market was no exception. The reason for such a reaction is that the Delta variant, which accounted for the majority of Covid cases, is still spreading and is not completely studied. Not only the two additional mutations the Delta variant has but another COVID19 mutation is now spreading.

The effectiveness of the available vaccines were many times questioned against the Delta variant and its mutations, anxiety grows with Omicron spreading globally. Japan already imposed restrictions to foreign travellers for one month and other countries which suffered the most from the Covid19 outrage most likely will follow the lead. We might get back to a lighter version of global lockdowns of early 2020 if the new variant is proven to be resistant to the available vaccines.

Nevertheless, the FED is concerned about the spread of the new variant and the path to the economic recovery and inflation for the Federal Reserve is once again “uncertain”. The FED Chair Mr Powell this Monday in his speech confirmed – “The recent rise in Covid-19 cases and the emergence of the Omicron variant pose downside risks to employment and economic activity and increased uncertainty for inflation.” Sounds like the FED found its best tool to hold down the uncontained inflation hike.

The Federal Reserve will likely reconsider its recovery plan and probably some shifts in previously forecasted dates will be introduced. Until then, markets might concentrate on risk hedging assets like Gold and Bitcoin. Since the pandemic Bitcoin has proven to be the most effective investment based on the ROI, hence this could be the best time for Bitcoin’s new uptrend.

Bitcoin and COVID

Since the virus caused lockdowns globally in early 2020 Bitcoin’s price was reacting to the discoveries of new variants. The price is not entirely allocated to the new variants but to fear and actions from the governments.

For instance, the first 4 variants had the highest impacts, as the World was in lockdowns and the situation globally was critical.

Delta variant was discovered in April 2021, restrictions were less strict, and there were other factors which caused the decline of BTC. When the Delta variant was discovered, the world Central Banks were declaring that the economic recovery was foreseeable and under control. However, the Omicron now changes the situation, as the uncertainty rises again.

Bitcoin’s sentiment indicators

If the lockdowns are imposed we will witness a high volatility in the cryptocurrency market and a new uptrend moves. Metaverse projects coins will be among the hot trending coins in the cryptocurrency market, however the path will be strictly drawn by Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s fear and greed index is one of the main indicators used by cryptocurrency investors.

Cryptomarket sentiment has been in fear since last week. Fear indicator is mainly used by professional cryptocurrency traders as a buy signal.

Bitcoin monthly ROI chart

Monthly return chart is used as one of the indicators to help identify Bitcoin’s price action within a month. Historical monthly return helps to identify whether Bitcoin’s price will close above or below the monthly open and what Bitcoin’s next month price action plans are.

Bitcoin chart analysis

Daily BTCUSD chart signals an upcoming uptrend continuation of BTC. The correction of November 10 seems to end soon, on the score of hitting the Fibo 0.5 level.

The correction of November 26-28 was also a retest of the previous major resistance of September 7 as support. This is another edge towards the upwards continuation.

The juxtaposition of the wave 3, followed by a similar to the current correction, leads to a next target for Bitcoin at $77K. MACD and RSI indicators on a daily BTCUSD chart are very bullish. MACD has turned upwards and is about to cross the signal line, while RSI is at its lowest support level.

In order to continue the uptrend Bitcoin must close above this dynamic resistance, see the 4H BTCUSD chart below.

This 4H chart suggests that Bitcoin is on a way for a slight correction locally before the possible uptrend, since RSI is close to the overbought area. The confirmation of Bitcoin’s next bull run will be when BTC breaks above and closes above this dynamic resistance. A retest of a local support at $55800 is also possible before the next jump.

It is now essential to track the progress of the new Covid19 variant and the responses of governments to its development. Mr Powell will testify before the Joint Economic Committee today and will provide an economic outlook, mainly will repeat whatever he has said earlier yesterday, November 29, 2021.