Bitcoin (BTC) Dips Below $64K as Mt. Gox Transfers and BlackRock’s BTC Optimism Clash

Bitcoin Drops Below $64,000 on Mt. Gox Activity

On Wednesday, September 25, BTC declined by 1.72%, reversing a 1.46% gain from the previous session to close at $63,168. BTC tracked the broader crypto market, which fell by 1.75%, bringing the total market cap to $2.168 trillion.

Mt. Gox Activity Fuels BTC Sell-off Concerns

On Wednesday, Arkham Intelligence reported renewed activity from Mt. Gox’s wallets, stating,

“Mt. Gox emptied 4 of their wallets last night after receiving $370K in BTC from Kraken. More repayments coming soon?”

According to Arkham Intelligence, Mt. Gox currently holds 44,905 BTC, equivalent to $2.82 billion. BTC transfers to crypto exchanges for repayment to its creditors could impact supply-demand trends, possibly creating oversupply.

Oversupply risk stems from the crypto community expecting creditors to cash out. Mt. Gox collapsed in February 2014, when BTC was less than $600 compared with today’s price of $63k.

A surge in sell orders across the crypto exchanges could overshadow a recent pickup in US BTC-spot ETF demand.

US BTC-spot ETF Market May End Four-Day Inflow Streak

On Wednesday, September 25, US BTC-spot ETF flow data signaled a possible end to the four-day inflow streak. According to Farside Investors,

• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net outflows of $47.4 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net outflows of $33.2 million.
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) bucked the trend, reporting net inflows of $2.1 million.

Excluding flow data for iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the US BTC-spot ETF market registered net outflows of $78.5 million. Unless IBIT sees another substantial inflow, the US BTC-spot ETF market will end its four-day inflow streak. IBIT had net inflows of $98.9 million on Tuesday, September 24.

Notably, lackluster inflows could further impact supply-demand trends as speculation grows about a sizable Mt. Gox repayment to creditors. Oversupply signals could push BTC down toward $60,000. Conversely, BTC could move toward $65,000 if IBIT shows signs of absorbing increased BTC supply.

MicroStrategy Founder Aligns with BlackRock on BTC Optimism

On Wednesday, MicroStrategy (MSTR) founder and chairman Michael Saylor shared a Bloomberg interview with Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock’s (BLK) Head of Digital Assets, saying,

“Bitcoin is an emerging global monetary alternative; a scarce, global, decentralized, non-sovereign asset. – Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock Head of Digital Assets.”

Mitchnick had this to say about BTC,

“It is an asset which has no country-specific risk, has no traditional counterparty risk. So these are interesting properties, when you think of it from an investment perspective, particularly in a world where there’s growing concerns over money printing, currency debasement risks, political, fiscal, sustainability challenges in the US or elsewhere.”

Mitchnick also discussed the risk-off attributes of BTC, stating,

“And so, that resonates, frankly, with a lot of investors. It goes back to what we talked about earlier, with the risk-on piece, it confuses investors when people talk about it as risk-on because based on the properties that I’ve just described, you would think of it as risk-off. The reality is, there are probably two or three things a year that happen typically that impact the fundamental value of BTC. This year, I would argue there have been four. But, that makes it hard to write daily stories. And so you see this instinct to point to whatever’s happening in equities or unemployment or jobs numbers or manufacturing, which really has no connection to BTC.”

Despite BTC’s scarcity, the possibility of oversupply continues to influence its price trends.

US BTC-spot ETF Flow Trends in Focus

On Thursday, September 26, US economic data may influence BTC demand through BTC-spot ETF flow trends. US initial jobless claims may be a focal point. Signals of a soft US economic landing could fuel demand for BTC-spot ETFs, possibly pushing BTC toward $65,000.

Notably, BTC dropped below $50,000 on August 5, with the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision and US Jobs Report fueling a ‘Yen carry trade unwind.’ US BTC-spot ETFs had net outflows of $554.4 million between August 2 and August 6, emphasizing sensitivity to macroeconomic events.

Investors should remain alert, with upcoming US economic data and Mt. Gox transfers likely to affect buyer demand for BTC and the broader market. Stay updated with our latest news and analysis to manage your BTC and crypto exposures.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC hovers above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price signals.

A break above the $64,000 resistance level could support a return to $65,000. Furthermore, a break above $65,000 may give the bulls a run at $67,500.

Investors should consider US economic indicators, Mt. Gox activity, and US BTC-spot ETF market flows.

Conversely, a fall through $62,000 could signal a drop toward the 50-day EMA and the $60,365 support level.

With a 58.44 14-day RSI reading, BTC may revisit $67,500 before entering overbought territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH remains above the 50-day EMA while hovering below the 200-day EMA, confirming bullish near-term but bearish longer-term price trends.

An ETH break above the $2,664 resistance level could signal a move toward the 200-day EMA. Furthermore, a breakout from the 200-day EMA may give the bulls a run at the $3,033 resistance level.

US ETH-spot ETF market-related updates also require consideration.

Conversely, an ETH drop below the 50-day EMA could indicate a fall toward the $2,403 support level.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 54.40, suggests an ETH rise to the 200-day EMA before entering overbought territory.