Bitcoin (BTC) News Today: BTC-Spot ETF Market Trends Amid Market Volatility

US Inflation Numbers Impact Riskier Assets

On Friday (Mar 15), BTC declined by 2.56%, ending the session at $69,603. BTC closed the day at sub-$70,000 for the first time in five sessions.

BTC-spot ETF market flow for Thursday (Mar 14) impacted buyer demand for BTC. The spot ETF market reacted to US economic indicators that cut bets on an H1 2024 Fed rate cut. On Thursday, US Producer Prices followed a hotter-than-expected US CPI Report, sending BTC into retreat.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point June Fed rate cut fell from 57.4% to 52.9% in the week ending Mar 15. More significantly, the chances of a 25-basis point May Fed rate cut slid from 23.2% to 8.7% in the week ending Mar 15.

BTC-Spot ETF Market Resilient Despite BTC Pullback

The BTC-spot ETF market saw net inflows fall from $683.7 million (Mar 13) to $132.5 million (Mar 14). iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw net inflows of $345.4 million to ensure the BTC-spot ETF market extended its run of net inflows to nine sessions.

Nonetheless, the impact of the US data was evident. Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net inflows slide from $281.5 million (Mar 13) to $13.7 million (Mar 14). FBTC net inflows were the lowest since launching on Jan 11. (All BTC-spot ETF flow data from BitMEX Research).

BTC and the broader crypto market joined the Nasdaq Composite Index in negative territory on Mar 14 and Mar 15. However, profit-taking impacted BTC more. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq was up 6.41% to Mar 15. In contrast, BTC was up 60.80%, leaving BTC at risk of a sharper pullback.

Despite the two-day pullback from the new all-time high of $73,810 (Mar14), BTC-spot ETF net inflows could see a new weekly high. From Monday (Mar 11) to Thursday (Mar 14), the BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $2,368.7 million. In the week ending Feb 16 (Monday to Friday), the BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $2,271 million, the previous weekly high.

The flow data supported bets on a BTC move toward $100,000. However, the flow data for Mar 15 could impact buyer demand for BTC. A large investor base may be using BTC-spot ETF trends as a proxy for BTC price trends.

BTC-Spot ETF Market Sees Net Inflows on Mar 15

According to provisional numbers from Farside Investors, the BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $198.8 million on Mar 15. FBTC led the way, with net inflows of $155.6 million. IBIT saw net inflows of $139.8 million. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw net outflows of $139.4 million on Mar 15.

The BTC-spot ETF flow data likely supported a BTC recovery from sub-$68,000 levels.

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas put things in perspective

Bitcoin Versus Gold

On Friday (Mar 15), Eric Balchunas shared year-to-date ETF flows by category. The BTC-spot ETF market (excl. GBTC) took the top spot, with $23,616 million, followed by intermediate-duration bonds ($16,212 million).

Commodity ETFs sat at the bottom of the table, with outflows of $6,750 million. Concerns over demand likely contributed to the sharp pullback. However, gold (XAU/USD) saw net outflows of $5,018 million despite sitting near all-time highs.

Eric Balchunas shared a Gold to Bitcoin correlation chart, saying,

“Bitcoin maxis and gold bugs may need to learn to live together. New from @psarofagis today re how their lack of correlation means they can serve dif parts of portfolio and can even offer diversification benefits together. They are dif IMO: bitcoin is hot sauce, gold is an alt.”

Balchunas added,

“The good news for bitcoin tho and I why I think it will pass gold easily in assets is when it comes to ETF investors (advisors/retail) alts are less popular than hot sauce. Hot sauce bucket much bigger. On flip alt bucket much bigger for institutions.”

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC remained well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

A BTC return to the $70,000 handle would give the bulls a run at the all-time high of $73,810 (Mar 14). A breakout from the ATH would support a move to the $75,000 handle.

On Saturday, BTC-spot ETF market flow data for Mar 15 and US lawmakers need consideration.

However, a drop below the $69,000 support level could bring the $64,000 support level into play.

The 14-Daily RSI reading, 66.24, indicates a BTC move to the ATH of $73,810 before entering overbought territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH sat well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming the bullish price signals.

An ETH breakout from the $3,835 resistance level would support a move to the Mar 12 high of $4,091. An ETH break above the Mar 12 high would support a move to the $4,200 handle.

ETH-spot ETF-related chatter also needs consideration.

However, an ETH break below the Friday low of $3,567 could give the bears a run at the $3,480 support level.

The 14-period Daily RSI at 61.08 suggests an ETH move to the $4,000 handle before entering overbought territory.