Bitcoin (BTC) News Today: ETF Flow Data Crucial Post-Halving Event

BTC-Spot ETF Market Flow Data, the US Economic Calendar, and the Fed

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.15% on Sunday (April 21). Partially reversing a 1.94% gain from Saturday (April 20), BTC ended the week down 1.43% to $65,067.

Investors hit the pause button on Sunday, with BTC moving within a $600 range after the April 20 (UTC) Bitcoin Halving.

The focus will likely return to the BTC-spot ETF market and spot ETF market reaction to the Bitcoin Halving. Importantly, BTC avoided an immediate sell-off, with price stability suggesting demand may drive the near-term price trends.

However, BTC-spot ETF market flow data could be pivotal in the near term. After net outflows of $204.3 million in the week ending April 19, a continued trend of net outflows could fuel profit-taking. Conversely, an improving demand environment through the spot ETFs may draw investors from the sidelines.

BTC-spot ETF market flow data for Monday, April 22, will likely set the tone for the week amid fading bets on multiple 2024 Fed rate cuts. Hawkish Fed commentary likely contributed to the BTC-spot ETF market outflows last week. The US economic calendar may influence buyer appetite for BTC this week.

The Services PMI (Tues), Q1 GDP numbers (Thurs), and the Personal Income and Outlays Report (Fri) need investor consideration. A pickup in US service sector activity, upbeat GDP numbers, and sticky inflation could further reduce bets on a September Fed rate cut. A less dovish Fed rate path could impact buyer demand and water down the effects of Bitcoin Halving on the supply-demand dynamics.

Amidst the shifting sentiment toward the Fed rate path, the performance of new BTC-spot ETF products will warrant investor attention. The Grayscale mini Bitcoin Trust and the BTC-spot ETF launches in Hong Kong could be focal points.

Is the BTC-Spot ETF Market Drying Out?

On Thursday, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas shared his perspective on the recent flow trends, saying,

“Totally normal for ETF category to cool off after breathtaking pace like this, esp w/ price down 12% in past 5 days (more on that in a minute).”

Balchunas attributed the net outflows for the week ending April 19 to Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) outflows, saying,

“That net number is still GBTC-driven, as the new nine have seen INFLOWS of +$330 over past 5 days w/ IBIT extending its inflow streak to 67 days, which is minor miracle.”

Discussing the 12% price drop, Balchunas concluded,

“Back to the 12% price drop in 5 days: 1) that’s on the btc natives, the so-called HODLers. So again, if you feel the need to point finger, just remember the call is coming from inside the house. 2) even w the price drop btc is up 144% since BlackRock’s filing last June and 47% YTD, which is 10x the return of $QQQ = if you are depressed with those returns you should prob seek medical help.”

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC hovered above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming the bullish price signals.

A BTC break above the $67,500 handle would give the bulls a run at the $69,000 resistance level.

On Monday, BTC-spot ETF market flow data warrants investor attention.

Conversely, a BTC fall through the 50-day EMA and the $64,000 support level would bring the $60,365 support level into play.

With a 14-Daily RSI reading of 46.41, BTC could fall to the $60,365 support level before entering oversold territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH remained below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs affirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

An ETH break above the $3,244 resistance level would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA. A breakout from the 50-day EMA could bring the $3,480 resistance level into play.

Conversely, an ETH break below the $3,033 support level could give the bears a run at the $2,800 handle.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading of 44.07 indicates an ETH fall to the $2,800 handle before entering oversold territory.