Bitcoin (BTC) Outlook: Bearish After BlackRock ETF Inflows Stall Amid Inflation Fears

Bitcoin Slides on Hot Inflation, ETF Outflows — Eyes on Bitcoin Act for Relief

Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 2.03% on March 29, following a 3.23% loss on March 28, closing at $82,705.

US tariffs, hotter-than-expected US inflation, and ongoing uncertainty about the Bitcoin Act have impacted sentiment. Higher US tariffs and Friday’s inflation numbers could delay Fed rate cuts, weighing on risk assets like BTC.

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Reacts to Higher US Inflation

Investors reacted to Friday’s US Personal Income and Outlays Report, which saw the US BTC-spot ETF market snap a ten-day inflow streak. According to Farside Investors, key flow data for March 28 included:

• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net outflows of $93.2 million.
• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw zero net flows alongside the other eleven issuers.

Despite Friday’s outflows, ETF issuers posted $196.4 million in net inflows for the week ending March 28, cushioning downside pressure. Flow trends emphasized short-term bearishness but long-term demand resilience.

CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno recently commented on investor sentiment:

“As we keep mentioning, Bitcoin demand remains in contraction mode, declining at the fastest pace since Dec. 2023.”

While sentiment has soured, apparent demand weakness may not assure a lasting BTC pullback. Between September 2023 and May 2024, BTC enjoyed a seven-month winning streak, fueled by anticipation of, and the subsequent launch of, US BTC-spot ETFs. The next potential BTC price catalyst might be the Bitcoin Act.

Senator Cynthia Lummis reintroduced the Bitcoin Act on March 11, proposing the US government purchase one million BTC over five years, with a 20-year mandatory holding period. Investors must closely monitor the Bitcoin Act’s progress in Congress.

BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers

BTC’s near-term outlook will depend on macroeconomic indicators and regulatory signals, including upcoming US jobs data, US tariff developments, the Fed’s policy stance, the Bitcoin Act’s progress, and ETF flows.

• Bullish Scenario: Sustained ETF inflows and progress on the Bitcoin Act may ease concerns over tariffs and the economic outlook, potentially lifting BTC above its record high of $109,312.
• Bearish Scenario: Setbacks to the bill, renewed trade tensions, ETF outflows, or a hawkish Fed stance could pull BTC toward the $70,000 level.

For deeper insights on macro data, regulatory developments, and ETF market flows, follow our analysis and forecasts here to manage crypto risks.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

Following recent losses, BTC is in a bearish trend, trading below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). These levels are sending negative price signals.

A breakout above the 200-day EMA and the $86,263 resistance level could enable the bulls to target the 50-day EMA. A move through the 50-day EMA could bring the $90,742 resistance level into play.

Conversely, if BTC breaks below $80k, the bears may target the March 11 low of $76,642. A fall through $76,642 could signal a drop toward the $73,641 support level.

With a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 43.96, BTC may drop to the March 11 low of $76,642 before entering oversold territory (RSI below 30).

Stay ahead of market trends by accessing real-time BTC price data and technical indicators here.

Ethereum Analysis

Meanwhile, ETH is also trading below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reaffirming bearish price signals.

An ETH return to $2,000 could signal a recovery toward the 50-day EMA and the $2,308 resistance level. A breakout above the $2,308 resistance level may enable the bulls to target $2,500.

Trends in ETH-spot ETF flows remain crucial for near-term price movements.

Conversely, a drop below $1,750 could bring $1,500 into sight.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading of 35.96 suggests ETH could drop to $1,750 before entering oversold territory. (RSI below 30).

Final Thoughts

BTC’s path to $100,000 remains clouded by macro risks, Fed policy uncertainty, and the fate of the Bitcoin Act. ETF flows, economic indicators, and legislative developments continue to influence sentiment.

Stay ahead of market trends with real-time BTC price data and expert insights. Follow our live updates on BTC price movements here.