Bitcoin (BTC) Outlook: ETF Inflows and China’s Economic Slowdown Impact BTC Prices

Bitcoin Faces Key Resistance at $63,000: Will Bulls Break Through?

On Sunday, October 13, BTC declined by 0.67%, partially reversing a 0.98% gain from the previous session, to close at $62,635. Significantly, BTC fell short of $64,000 for the sixth consecutive session.

China’s Economic Troubles Weigh on Sentiment

Can Bitcoin Overcome the $64,000 Hurdle, or Are Headwinds Too Strong?

On Sunday, economic data from China revealed a further weakening in demand, adversely impacting market risk sentiment. Producer prices declined by 2.8% year-on-year in September after falling 1.8% in August. Producers typically reduce prices as demand weakens, passing savings on to consumers.

The inflation figures were significant as investors anticipated fiscal stimulus measures from Beijing. However, China’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) failed to introduce stimulus measures, on Saturday, targeting consumer consumption. A continued deterioration in the world’s second-largest economy may have wide-reaching effects on demand for riskier assets, including BTC.

Meanwhile, US economic indicators continued to fuel expectations of a soft US economic landing, which may have limited BTC’s losses.

US BTC-Spot ETF Inflows: A Silver Lining?

US BTC-spot ETF market flow trends reflected investor optimism toward the Fed rate path and economy. On Friday, October 11, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw net inflows of $253.6 million, with total net inflows of $348.5 for the week ending October 11.

US BTC-spot ETF flow trends are significant for supply-demand trends. Oversupply risk lingers following the recent US appellate court ruling, allowing the US government to sell 69k BTC related to the Silk Road.

In total, the US government has a stockpile of 203,239 BTC. Plans to sell a sizeable portion could disrupt the supply-demand balance, especially if US BTC-spot ETFs are unable to absorb the excess supply.

Outlook

Investors should remain vigilant. Oversupply risk, sentiment toward the Fed rate path, and US BTC-spot EFF market flows will continue influencing BTC price trends. Fiscal stimulus news from China also requires consideration. Explore our real-time BTC analysis for insights on managing risk

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

Despite Sunday’s decline, BTC remains above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

Breaking above $64,000 would pave the way for a BTC move toward $65,000. Furthermore, a breakout from the $65,000 level may give the bulls a run at the $69,000 resistance level.

Investors should consider US government-related transfer news, People’s Bank of China and Fed commentary, and US BTC-spot ETF market flow trends.

Conversely, a fall through the 50-day EMA could signal a drop toward the $60,365 support level and the 200-day EMA.

With a 52.49 14-day RSI reading, BTC may climb above the $65,000 level before entering overbought territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH sits below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bearish price signals.

An ETH break above the 50-day EMA could support a move toward the $2,664 resistance level. Furthermore, a breakout from the $2,664 resistance level may give the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA.

US ETH-spot ETF market-related updates also require consideration.

Conversely, an ETH break below the $2,403 support level may bring the $2,124 support level into play.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 48.10, suggests an ETH drop to the $2,124 support level before entering oversold territory.