Bitcoin (BTC) Price at Crossroads —$75k Breakout or Shocking $50k Reversal?

BTC price rebounded to daily-timeframe peak of $67,716 on March 6 after having dipped 13% in the wake of the widespread profit-taking trades that heralded Bitcoin’s new all-time high.  On-chain data reveals that the bearish catalysts that drove BTC price to a weekly low of $59,548 are still in play. 

What are the chances of a Bitcoin price witnessing a breakout above $75,000 in the coming days?

BTC price reversal triggered by record-breaking profit-taking

Tuesday March 5, marked the first time Bitcoin price traded above $69,090 in hits eventful 15-year history. Remarkably, the milestone was heralded by rapid sell-offs by traders looking to cash-in on their profitable positions. 

Within the next 24 hours, rapid sell-offs accelerated by dramatic long liquidations in the derivatives markets saw BTC price rapidly drop as low as $59,458.

Thanks ETF demand and frantic covering purchases from leveraged traders, BTC was able to hold the $59,000 support and rebounded above $67,000. However, on-chain data trends suggest the bearish tailwinds could linger a few more days and hold BTC price rally in a consolidation phase.

In confirmation of this stance, on-chain data trends shows how Bitcoin long-term investors had entered a record-breaking profit-taking wave ahead of the price retracement on March 6. rejection.

Santiment’s Age Consumed metric, tracks real-time swings in long-term investors trading activity, by multiplying the number of recently-moved coins by the number of days since they were ast traded.

Rising values of the Age Consumed metric implies that more long-held coins are  being traded and vice-versa. 

As seen above, BTC Age Consumed recorded significant spikes over the past week BTC edged closer to the $70,000 milestone. After trending above 40 million in each of the last 3 trading days, it soared to 67.2 million coin days destroyed on March 6, a move that quickly tipped the momentum in the bears’ favor.

Long-term holders often take profits when price hit critical milestones. Hence, the sell-off that heralded BTC’s new all-time high was widely-anticipated.

However, if long-term holders keep selling over an prolonged period it could accelerate the price downtrend, or significantly slow down the next rally. 

Hence, strategic swing traders will keep their eye on the long-term holders’ disposition in the days ahead as vital indicator of  the prospects  Bitcoin price advancing towards $75,000 or surrendering to a $50,000 reversal.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Prolonged Consolidation within $60,000 – $69,000

From an on-chain perspective, Bitcoin price is now more likely to consolidate within the $60,000 to $69,000 channel, unless the ongoing selling trend observed among long-term holders abates.

In affirmation of this stance, IntoTheBlock’s global in/out of the money data shows that the looming buy-wall at $59,300 makes for the bears to stage a brazen  attempt at a reversal below $50,000.

As seen below, 545,650 addresses had acquired 337,460 BTC at the minimum price of $59,323. If the hold their positions, BTC price will likely rebound from that area as earlier observed on March 6.

In event of an upswing, the selling pressure from bearish traders capitalizing they psychological resistance at $70,000 range, make a $75,000 unlikely outcome in the near-term.