Bitcoin, Ethereum Weekly Outlook: Donald Trump’s US Crypto Reserve in Core Focus

Donald Trump has sparked a fresh crypto market rally after announcing a US strategic reserve, which would include top cryptocurrencies Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP (XRP), Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL).

“A US Crypto Reserve will elevate this critical industry after years of corrupt attacks by the Biden Administration, which is why my Executive Order on Digital Assets directed the Presidential Working Group to move forward on a Crypto Strategic Reserve that includes XRP, SOL, and ADA,” the US President said in a post on Truth Social, adding:

“I will make sure the U.S. is the Crypto Capital of the World.”

Bitcoin, Ethereum Markets Weekly Recap

Bitcoin, Ethereum and broader crypto market gains appear days after a brutal selloff led by Trump’s tariff war against China, Mexico, and Canada.

Last week’s economic data raised potential warning signs for the U.S. economy, with the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s downwardly revised GDP “nowcast” suggesting a possible contraction this quarter—the first in several years.

That led to a repricing of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as traders weigh the impact of slowing growth and uncertainty surrounding trade and fiscal policy.

Adding to the unease is a potential shift in the narrative around AI-driven growth, which has been a key driver of investor optimism. Nvidia, a key AI player, reported strong earnings but saw its stock decline due to margin concerns.

In addition to Trump’s crypto reserve announcement, good news was that Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies were showing signs of being technically oversold, hinting at a potential short-term rebound, which took place over the weekend.

Nonetheless, on a broader scale, uncertainty around economic conditions and regulatory developments means traders should stay nimble and prepare for higher volatility in the coming weeks, warns Andrew Tu, head of sales at crypto market maker Efficient Frontier.

“If expectations don’t meet reality, then markets can retreat again,” Tu said. “For now, all the bearishness of the past week has been forgotten by markets.”

Other key events from the crypto market last week include:

• Bitcoin ETFs snapped an eight-day $3.2 billion outflow streak with $94.3 million inflows, marking the first net positive inflow after shedding $20 billion in value.
• US judge dismisses SEC fraud suit against Hex founder Richard Heart.
• BlackRock added Bitcoin ETF to model portfolio, targeting investors with higher risk budgets.
• Boerse Stuttgart partnered with DekaBank to enable crypto trading for institutional clients.
• SEC delayed decision on Ethereum ETF options.
• SEC dismissed the lawsuit against Coinbase and Gemini, thus reversing its crypto stance.
• Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade faced issues on Holesky testnet, with several blocks missed and finalization pending.
• Canary Capital filed for the first spot Hedera HBAR ETF with Nasdaq.
• Dubai recognized USDC and EURC as the first stablecoins under the token regime.

From global markets:

 

• PCE Price Index: Headline MoM +0.3% (in line with estimates), YoY slowed to +2.5% (lowest since early 2021). Core PCE MoM +0.3%, YoY +2.6% (both as expected).
• Consumer Confidence: Dropped to 98.3 (vs. 105.3 prior, 102.5 expected), largest decline since Aug 2021. Expectations Index fell to 72.9, below the recessionary threshold (80) for the first time since June 2024.
• Personal Spending: Declined 0.2% (largest drop since Feb 2021), vs. 0% expected.
• Personal Income: Increased 0.9% (above +0.4% expected and prior month).
• Pending Home Sales: Fell 4.6% to an all-time low of 70.6 (since 2001).
• Q4 GDP (2nd Estimate): 2.3% (unchanged from initial reading).
• Durable Orders: Up 3.1% in Jan ($286B), beating +2.0% forecast; ex-transportation, flat.
• Initial Jobless Claims: Rose to 242K (vs. 220K prior, 225K expected). Continuing claims down 5K to 1.862M.
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Revised Q1 GDP forecast to -1.5% from +2.3% last week.

Bitcoin Weekly On-Chain Analysis

Bitcoin traders are at a crossroads as on-chain data flashes both bullish and bearish signals, hinting at potential volatility ahead.

Exchange Activity: Mixed Signals

• Exchange Reserves ↓ (Bullish): Lower BTC supply on exchanges suggests reduced selling pressure.
• Exchange Netflow ↑ (Bearish): BTC inflows into exchanges exceed the 7-day average, signaling potential sell-offs.

On-Chain Indicators: Profit-Taking in Motion

• NUPL (Belief Phase): High unrealized profits suggest investors may hold for more gains or start taking profits.
• Binary CDD ↑ (Bearish): Increased movement from long-term holders, often a precursor to major market moves.
• aSOPR ↑ (Bearish): More BTCs are being sold at a profit, indicating realized gains and possible selling pressure.

Sentiment: Institutional vs. Retail Divide

• Coinbase Premium ↓ (Bearish): Weak buying pressure from U.S. investors/institutions.
• Fund Premium ↑ (Bullish): High ETF inflows suggest continued institutional accumulation.
• Korea Premium ↑ (Bearish): Korean retail investors are aggressively buying, often a sign of overheated sentiment.

Bitcoin Weekly Technical Analysis

Bitcoin continues to trade within a consolidation range, facing resistance at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level (~$102,302) while finding support at the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) (~$77,198). The price action suggests that BTC is in a cooling-off phase following its strong uptrend, as traders weigh the next major move.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving toward a support level around 45, suggesting more room for consolidation or decline for Bitcoin in the coming days.

Overall, Bitcoin remains at a pivotal juncture. If the 1.618 Fib resistance breaks, BTC could enter a parabolic phase, with potential upside targets beyond $110,000. However, failure to reclaim this level may lead to extended consolidation or a deeper correction toward key moving averages and Fibonacci support zones.

Ethereum Weekly On-Chain Analysis

Ethereum’s latest on-chain metrics reveal a concerning trend of increasing selling pressure, coupled with a decline in institutional demand. While derivatives data hints at a potential trend reversal, retail-driven buying, particularly in Korea, suggests speculative behavior that could lead to short-term volatility.

Exchange Data: Higher Selling Pressure

• Exchange Netflow ↓ (Bullish): Fewer ETH inflows than the 7-day average, reducing immediate sell-side pressure.
• Exchange Reserve ↑ (Bearish): Rising ETH reserves indicate higher potential selling pressure, as more coins are moved to exchanges.

Sentiment: Institutional Weakness, Retail Speculation

• Coinbase Premium ↓ (Bearish): Low U.S. investor demand, signaling weak institutional interest.
• Fund Premium ↓ (Bearish): Lower ETF inflows, reflecting reduced confidence from large investors.
• Korea Premium ↑ (Bearish): High Korean retail buying pressure, often linked to speculative price action rather than long-term accumulation.

Derivatives Market: Possible Trend Shift

• Open Interest ↓ (Neutral/Bearish): A decrease in open interest suggests some traders are exiting positions, which could signal a trend reversal.
• Funding Rate ↑ (Bullish): Dominant long sentiment indicates that traders remain optimistic about ETH’s price movement despite weakening fundamentals.

Ethereum Weekly Technical Analysis

Ethereum is currently testing a critical neckline support of its head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern, hovering around $2,295–$2,300. A decisive breakdown below this level could confirm a bearish continuation, with a measured move targeting $1,371—a key historical support zone.

The H&S formation, a well-known bearish reversal pattern, has yet to fully break down. ETH is still trading at the neckline, meaning bulls could attempt a defense and keep prices from cascading lower. If ETH closes below $2,295, the pattern would be confirmed, potentially leading to a sharp decline toward the H&S target of $1,371.

On the upside, ETH would need to reclaim $2,500 to invalidate the bearish setup and shift momentum back toward $2,966 (0.5 Fib retracement) or higher.

The RSI (39.27) is hovering above 38.38 support, suggesting ETH is nearing oversold territory. If RSI breaks lower, it would reinforce bearish momentum, increasing the likelihood of a neckline breakdown.