Bitcoin, Ethereum Weekly Outlook: Trump’s Tariff Tactics Fail to Shatter Crypto Market

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and the broader cryptocurrency market experienced choppy trading last week, and current technical signals suggest a similar outlook for the ongoing weekly session.

Bitcoin, Crypto Market Weekly Recap

Last week’s crypto market performance was moderately bearish due to a weak technical setup and macro uncertainty. However, Bitcoin held up relatively well, trading around the $96,000-$97,000 area despite external pressures, including lingering concerns over U.S. tariffs and inflation data.

Ethereum found support near $2,300 and is currently hovering around $2,691.

The resilience of Bitcoin and Ethereum, much like traditional risk assets, suggests that traders are not yet pricing in major downside risks. Instead, they appear to be waiting for a more definitive macro or on-chain signal before taking a strong directional stance.

On-chain metrics indicate that Bitcoin’s supply across exchanges is declining rapidly, indicating more traders are choosing to hold the cryptocurrency instead of selling it for other assets.

Ethereum on-chain data shows similar sentiment.

Additionally, the market shrugged off warmer-than-expected inflation data, which some analysts had feared could trigger risk-off sentiment.

This suggests that crypto traders, like their equity market counterparts, may view inflation data as a parameter of Trump’s potentially lagging tariff attacks.

Despite this resilience, Bitcoin’s technical picture remains cautious. The cryptocurrency has failed to break above its recent highs and is hovering just above its 50-week EMA (~$75,878), a key support level.

If BTC fails to hold this level in the coming weeks, it could signal a deeper pullback. Meanwhile, the 200-week EMA (~$47,761) remains a critical long-term support, far below current prices.

Ethereum, on the other hand, has shown some recovery after a dip below its 200-week EMA ($2,294). The 50-week EMA ($2,494) remains an important resistance level, and ETH will need to reclaim this zone for a potential bullish continuation.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 43.55, signaling that Ethereum is still in a neutral to slightly bearish phase but could form a local bottom if demand picks up.

Regulatory Developments Add to Crypto Market Optimism

Bitcoin and Ethereum’s short-term technicals remain uncertain, but the regulatory landscape in the U.S. is potentially providing a longer-term bullish catalyst.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order to create a Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets, signaling a heightened focus on crypto regulation at the federal level.

Simultaneously, the Senate Banking Committee has established its first-ever Subcommittee on Digital Assets, chaired by crypto-friendly Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming.

This move aligns with the existing House Financial Services Committee’s digital assets subcommittee, and both are expected to coordinate efforts with the White House.

According to Michael Townsend, Schwab’s managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs, these developments strongly indicate that bipartisan crypto legislation will be a high priority in 2025.

These policy advancements could create a more structured regulatory framework, offering clarity for institutional investors and fostering long-term adoption. However, how these discussions evolve in the coming months will be crucial for Bitcoin and Ethereum’s trajectory.

Bitcoin, Ethereum Outlook for This Week

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $96,355, consolidating near its recent highs, while Ethereum trades at $2,691 after bouncing from its 200-week EMA support. Technical indicators suggest that both BTC and ETH may struggle to push significantly higher in the short term.

A breakout above $100,000 for Bitcoin and $3,000 for Ethereum would likely attract fresh capital, fueling a parabolic rally. However, the lack of imminent market-moving catalysts could limit immediate upside momentum.

The next major event to watch is the Feb. 28 U.S. PCE inflation report, which could influence risk appetite across global markets, including crypto.

Additionally, bond market movements—particularly U.S. Treasury yields—may influence Bitcoin and Ethereum’s direction. If yields remain stable or decline, crypto could see further strength.

On the other hand, a surge in yields could pressure risk assets, including BTC and ETH.

Given these mixed signals, the market setup for next week leans slightly bullish but lacks strong conviction. The key levels to watch remain:

• Bitcoin: $100,000 on the upside and $92,000 as near-term support.
• Ethereum: $3,000 as key resistance, with $2,300-$2,400 support.

Bitcoin, Ethereum Weekly Technical Outlook

Bitcoin traders should prepare for heightened volatility as the price approaches the apex of the symmetrical triangle. Historically, such patterns lead to a breakout within a few days.

The key pivot levels to watch are $98,000 on the upside and $95,000 on the downside.

If Bitcoin closes a 4-hour or daily candle above $98,000, bulls could push the price toward $100,000. Conversely, a breakdown below $95,000 would likely result in further downside toward $92,000-$93,000.

Ethereum’s recent price action shows a bear pennant formation, a bearish continuation pattern that suggests a potential breakdown.

A bear pennant typically resolves to the downside, with the price objective calculated by measuring the flagpole’s height and subtracting it from the breakdown level. In this case, the measured move projects a potential Ethereum price target of approximately $1,913, a drop of nearly 28% from current levels.

If Ethereum breaks below the $2,600 support level, the following price targets come into play:

• $2,449 (0.236 Fib retracement level, first support zone)
• $2,146 (previous swing low, key support area)
• $1,913 (bear pennant target, historical demand zone)

If selling pressure intensifies and Ethereum loses the $1,900 level, it could expose ETH to deeper losses toward $1,800 or lower. However, if ETH reclaims $2,800 and closes above $2,939, the bearish setup would be invalidated, potentially triggering a move toward key resistance levels:

• $3,156 (0.786 Fib, strong resistance zone)
• $3,430 (previous local high, full retracement target)