Bitcoin Forecast: Will ETF Inflows and the Bitcoin Act Trigger BTC Run at $100k?

Bitcoin Steadies After Trump’s SBR Executive Order Sell-Off

On Saturday, March 8, bitcoin (BTC) fell 0.59%, following Friday’s 3.53% slide to close at $86,268. A three-day losing streak left BTC below $90k for the first time in four sessions. Price trends reflected investor disappointment with President Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) Executive Order.

While a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) would typically be bullish for BTC, uncertainty over how the government will acquire more BTC raised concerns. The Kobeissi Letter, an industry-leading commentary on the global capital markets, remarked on the issue:

“Bitcoin falls sharply after President Trump signs Executive Order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Why? No explanation on how the reserve will be funded aside from Bitcoin already held by the US. It’s simply a promise to not sell what they currently hold.”

US-BTC-Spot ETF Outflows Weigh on Demand

Institutional investors reacted to Trump’s SBR executive order. On March 7, the US BTC-spot ETF market recorded net outflows of $739.2 million, contributing to BTC’s loss. Concerns over US tariff policies and a possible US recession added to the bearish sentiment.

Kalshi placed the odds of a US recession at 41.1% on March 7, up from 17% in January. Rising tariff risks and weaker economic data raised concerns about inflation and an economic downturn.

The US BTC-spot ETF market extended its weekly outflow streak to four weeks. According to Farside Investors, the largest weekly ETF outflows for the week ending March 7 included:

• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net outflows of $201 million, extending its outflow streak to 6-weeks.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) had net outflows of $163.5 million.
• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw net outflows of $129.6 million.

As institutional investors pulled back, weak demand disrupted BTC’s supply-demand balance, leading to an 8.76% decline for the week.

Market analyst Tony Sycamore from IG.com noted:

“With the Trump Administration apparently running out of fresh ideas to boost digital asset prices, the driver of Bitcoin’s price will be US trade policy, recession fears and risk appetite.”

Investors must now monitor the progress of Senator Cynthia Lummis’ Bitcoin Act in Congress. Senator Lummis introduced the bill, proposing the US government purchase one million BTC over five years, with a 20-year mandatory holding period.

BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers

BTC’s trajectory depends on US tariff policies, Fed rate cut expectations, US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) developments, and ETF flow trends.

• Bullish Scenario: ETF inflows and progress on Senator Cynthia Lummis’ Bitcoin Act could offset tariff risks and recession fears, potentially driving BTC beyond its record high of $109,312.
• Bearish Scenario: Opposition to the Bitcoin Act, trade war escalation, or a hawkish Fed could push BTC below $80K.

Dive deeper into the influence of macroeconomic data, US crypto policies, and BTC-spot ETF market flows on price action. Follow our analysis and forecasts here to manage crypto-related risks.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

After the latest sell-off, BTC is in a mixed trend, trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs sent bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

A break above the $86,263 resistance level could enable the bulls to target the $90,742 resistance level. If BTC breaks out from the $90,742 resistance level, the 50-day EMA would be the next key resistance level.

Conversely, if BTC drops below the 200-day EMA, the bears could target $80,000.

With a 40.76 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading, BTC may drop to the March 4 low of $81,501 before entering oversold territory (RSI below 30).

Stay ahead of market trends by accessing real-time BTC price data and technical indicators here.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, remains well below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish price signals.

An ETH break above the $2,308 resistance level could signal a move toward $2,500. A return to $2,500 may enable the bulls to target the 50-day and the $2,815 resistance level next.

ETH-spot ETF flow trends remain crucial for near-term price movements.

Conversely, a drop below the March 4 low of $1,997 could signal a potential fall toward the $1,750 level.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading of 38.27 suggests ETH could fall to the March low of $1,997 before entering oversold territory. (RSI below 30).

Final Thoughts

BTC’s path to $110,000 remains uncertain as traders monitor the Bitcoin Act’s progress, Fed policy, tariff risks, and ETF flows. Broader macroeconomic conditions and US regulatory developments will continue to influence sentiment.

Stay ahead of market trends with real-time BTC price data and expert insights. Follow our live updates on BTC price movements here.