Bitcoin May Crash Toward $65K-70K Range As Trump Slaps 50% Tariff on Canada

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is at risk of a sharp decline following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 50% tariff on Canadian imports, escalating trade tensions between the two countries. The policy has rattled financial markets, with investors fearing its impact on global trade and risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

A $70,000 Bitcoin is Possible — Arthur Hayes

As of March 11, Bitcoin was trading at around $81,140, dropping nearly 14% in the past two weeks.

Market analysts now warn that further downside could be ahead. That includes former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, who sees a potential bottom near $70,000—a 36% drawdown from the all-time high of around $110,000.

He outlined a scenario where stocks enter free fall, a major financial institution collapses, and central banks respond with aggressive monetary easing before the crypto market finds a true bottom.

According to CME data, bond traders don’t see a rate cut until June, with March and May meetings favoring keeping the rates steady at 400-425 basis points.

The broader macroeconomic environment adds to Bitcoin’s uncertainty. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have shown increased volatility following Trump’s aggressive trade stance.

On March 11, the US President announced he is doubling tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50% in response to Ontario’s decision to impose a levy on electricity exports to the US.

“This will go into effect TOMORROW MORNING, March 12,” Trump wrote. The tariff hike doubles the previously planned 25% duty set to take effect just after midnight.

Trump also warned of additional trade penalties, stating he would “substantially increase” tariffs on Canadian automobile parts starting April 2 unless Canada lifts tariffs on US dairy products and other goods.

The president claimed the move would “essentially, permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada” if Ottawa fails to comply.

Historical Bitcoin Corrections Signal Deeper Drawdown

Bitcoin’s recent rally faces growing downside risks, with historical market cycles suggesting a deeper correction may be underway.

In the 2021 cycle, for instance, BTC topped near $69,000 before undergoing a prolonged decline toward its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA)—a critical technical support level.

A similar pattern played out in 2017, when Bitcoin corrected from $20,000 to retest the 50-week EMA at $6,000 before experiencing further losses.

Currently, BTC is showing early signs of weakness following its recent surge. The price is trading at $81,142, down 13.93% from its recent high of $94,272. With the relative strength index (RSI) declining from overbought levels, historical precedents suggest that Bitcoin may continue to correct lower in the coming weeks.

The 50-week EMA, currently around $64,142, serves as a key downside target. This moving average has historically acted as a major support zone in bullish market structures, preventing deeper drawdowns.

If Bitcoin follows its previous market cycles, it could see a decline of approximately 30%- 40% from its local high, aligning with a potential test of the 50-week EMA in the $64,000-$65,000 range.

A break below this level would open the door to further downside toward the Fibonacci retracement levels, particularly the 0.618 retracement zone at $48,536, which has acted as a pivotal level in past corrections.