Bitcoin: Only a Bounce or a New Bull?

Bitcoin Bottomed as Forecasted

In our last update, see here; we presented two Elliot Wave Principle (EWP) options for Bitcoin (BTC) and its halving-cycle-related four phases. More about those in a later update. We found,

“Currently, [BTC] is in a corrective wave, red W-ii, which should ideally subdivide into three smaller green waves, with green W-a completed this week. Green W-b to 29.5+/1.0K is now underway, followed by green W-c down to $21.7-23.6K. Once red W-ii ends, W-iii (the third wave) will kick in and propel BTC to six digits. The alternative to this long-term Bullish EWP count is that red W-ii is already complete: labeled as “alt: ii.”

Fast forward, and BTC is holding above its 9/11 low at $24,919 and has so far staged a two-wave rally: grey W-a and W-b. The latter bottomed, most likely, on 9/25 at $26,004, right in the forecasted target zone. Now, grey W-c of green W-b should be underway to ideally $28500-30000. See figure 1 below.

The September 11 Low at $24,919 Is Critical

However, as stated, there is an alternative in that the 2^nd wave could already have bottomed, as presented in Figure 2 below. If BTC stays above $26,004 and especially the 9/11 low at $24,919 it can try to establish an impulse move higher (green Waves 1 through 5 from the 9/11 low).

Thus, BTC bottomed precisely where we thought it would and should now be at least in a countertrend rally to $28.5-30K before making a marginally lower low at around $23.5K. Alternatively, the low is already in place, and BTC is ready to target approximately $30-33K before we see the next buyable pullback. Regardless, based on BTC’s past cycles, made up of four more minor phases, it is currently in the accumulation phase and thus close to the next Bull run, which can target $100-200+K.