BTC to $40,000? –Bitcoin Price Catalysts to Look for this Week

 Bitcoin Price Insights: 

• Bitcoin (BTC) price has hit a new yearly peak in each of the last three consecutive weeks. Investors anticipate that BTC will cross $39,000 next week. 
• Bullish holders shifted 30,000 BTC into crypto exchange wallets, signaling a possible profit-taking session in the coming week. 
• The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that BTC is approaching overbought territory. 

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price grazed $38,000 last week as the bulls extended the 2023 peak by another 7% on Thursday, November 9, 2023. In-depth data analysis examines how recent on-chain movements by Bitcoin holders could impact BTC price action in the coming week. 

Bitcoin Holders Deposited 30,000 BTC on Crypto Exchanges Over the Weekend.

Bitcoin price climbed to a new 2023 peak of $37,900 on November 9, when news of the SEC approving a number of Spot ETF applications hit the newsreels last week. A lot of corporate institutions and whale investors were spotted buying up large amounts of BTC and shifting them into long-term storage wallets. 

However, as the bullish impact of the news saturated, on-chain data shows that some BTC investors are moving to lock in some quick profits. CryptoQuant’s BTC Exchange Reserves data shows that some BTC holders deposited a significant amount of BTC into their exchange wallets over the weekend. 

As depicted below, the Bitcoin Exchange Reserves stood at 2.01 million BTC when the price hit $38,000 on Thursday. But as of Sunday November 12, it has increased to 2.04 million BTC.

This means that Bitcoin holders have deposited 30,000 BTC across different crypto exchanges, over the weekend alone. When valued at the current BTC price of $37,200 the newly-deposited coins will add approximately $1.2 billion to Bitcoin market supply. 

The Exchange Reserves metric depicted above, tracks real-time changes in the number of BTC coins deposited on crypto exchanges and trading platforms. Typically, it is a bearish signal when exchange supply increases and vice versa. 

Firstly, an increase in Exchange Reserves, as observed above, indicates that more investors are looking to explore short-term trading opportunities, than those opting for long-term storage. 

Secondly, increasing Bitcoin deposits across crypto spot trading platforms and exchanges effectively dilutes the market supply. 

Hence, without a corresponding increase in Bitcoin market demand this week, the additional $1.2 billion (30,000 BTC) deposited on exchanges over the weekend could trigger a price pull-back in the days ahead. 

Bitcoin Price Forecast: The Bulls Could Endure a Consolidation Phase

The rising Bitcoin Exchange Reserves suggest that a significant number of BTC holders are considering short-term profit taking opportunities. If the bears keep adding billions of dollars worth of BTC to the market supply, the bulls could eventually succumb to the fatigue. 

The daily Relative Strength Index data also corroborates this Bitcoin price forecast. As of November 12, BTC RSI currently stands at 81.69. 

Typically, an RSI value greater than 70 is a clear indication that the asset is approaching oversold territory. Hence, with the bulls running out of steam the rising BTC market supply puts the Bitcoin price in danger of a pull-back. 

If that happens, the Bitcoin bulls could mount a significant support wall at the 20-day EMA price of $34,780. With the sentiment surrounding the crypto market still firmly bullish, BTC will likely attract buying interest to force a rebound at that range. 

However, losing that support level could send BTC price spiraling toward the EMA-50 of $32,000, which is the next significant support territory. 

On the flip side, the bulls target another yearly high for the 4th consecutive week if BTC receives a boost from another bullish news event. In that case, the current yearly peak of $38,000 will be the initial resistance to beat.

As decisive breakout of the $38,000 resistance could send BTC price above the elusive $40,000 target.