Bitcoin Prices Forecast: How BTC Reacts to SEC Moves and US Economic Indicators

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin breaks its 8-day skid, rising by 1.35% to close Wednesday at $26,501.
• Major players, including Blackrock and Fidelity, await SEC’s nod for their BTC-Spot ETF submissions.
• Thursday focuses on the SEC and Federal Reserve; BTC investors brace for potential turbulence.

Wednesday Overview

On Wednesday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 1.35%. Reversing a 0.37% loss from Tuesday, BTC ended the session at $26,501. Significantly, BTC ended an eight-day losing streak.

Investor Sentiment Toward Fed Monetary Policy Delivers Brief Distraction

BTC and the broader market continued to struggle going into the Wednesday session. Market sentiment toward the SEC and the likelihood of the SEC approving the pending BTC-Spot ETF applications weighed on buyer appetite.

We expect further market reaction to BTC-Spot ETF-related news, with the SEC likely to open other BTC-Spot ETF applications for public comment. Blackrock (BLK) and Fidelity are among the big names with applications awaiting SEC review.

There were no crypto events to deliver the morning reversal to a session low of $25,922. Market sentiment toward the SEC and the outlook for the BTC-Spot ETFs continued to weigh on buyer appetite.

However, falling US Treasury yields provided afternoon support. Investors reacted to the worse-than-expected US private sector PMIs. BTC and the broader market tracked the NASDAQ Composite Index throughout the US session.

The Thursday Session: The SEC and the Fed Are in the Spotlight

Investors should continue tracking SEC updates on the pending BTC-Spot ETF applications. We expect investors to respond negatively to the news of the SEC opening up more applications to the public for comment.

However, SEC v Ripple, SEC v Binance, and SEC v Coinbase Coinbase (COIN) case-related news also needs consideration. While the SEC considers BTC a commodity, BTC is not immune from SEC activity within the digital asset space.

Beyond the digital asset space, investors need to monitor Fed chatter. Following the reaction to US PMI numbers, we anticipate price sensitivity to hawkish commentary relating to the Fed interest rate path.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Actions

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC below the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band. Despite the gains on Wednesday, an eight-day losing streak continued to leave BTC below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 26.69 continued to show BTC in oversold territory. The RSI aligns with the EMAs supporting a return to sub-$26,000 to bring the $25,650 – $25,340 support band into play. However, a BTC return to $26,500 would signal a move through the lower level of the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band. A move through the 200-day EMA would signal a shift in investor sentiment.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, BTC hovers below the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band. BTC remains below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reaffirming bearish near-term price signals.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 49.01 reflects a moderately bearish sentiment, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the EMAs, with sub-$26,000 and the $25,650 – $25,340 support band in play. However, a move through the lower level of the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band would support a breakout from the 50-day EMA to target the upper level of the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band.