BTC at Risk of Sub-$28,000 as Spot ETF Chatter Goes Silent

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, BTC bucked the broader market trend, rising by 0.19% to end the day at $29,315.
• Government bond yields fueled-risk aversion, sending BTC to sub-$29,000 before finding support.
• However, the near-term technical indicators remain bearish, signaling a fall to sub-$28,500.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.19%. Partially reversing a 1.80% slide from Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $29,315.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.20% to $29,255. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $29,362 before falling to a low of $29,255.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC/USD sitting below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. BTC also sat below the 50-day EMA ($29,439) while holding above the 200-day EMA ($27,120), sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals. Notably, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, signaling further losses.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 43.79 reading reflects bearish sentiment. The RSI aligns with the 50-day EMA, supporting a return to sub-$28,500. However, a move through the 50-day EMA ($29,439) would give the bulls a run at the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, BTC remains below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. BTC sits below the 50-day ($29,409) and 200-day ($29,624) EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

Significantly, the 50-day EMA pulled back from the 200-day EMA, supporting further losses. However, a BTC move through the 50-day ($29,409) and 200-day ($29,624) EMAs would give the bulls a run at the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 47.18 indicates a bearish stance, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the EMAs, signaling a return to sub-$28,500.

Government Bond Yields Send BTC to Sub-$29,000 Before Finding Support

It was a quiet Thursday session on the crypto news wires. The lack of a crypto event left rising government bond yields to test buyer appetite. The downgrade of the US sovereign rating to AA+ continued to resonate.

However, US corporate earnings and economic indicators provided modest support. After the US closing bell, Amazon.com (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) beat earnings forecasts. US Nonfarm productivity and factory orders were also market-friendly. However, a weaker-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and uncertainty over the SEC and the future of the spot BTC ETF market capped the upside.

The Day Ahead

This afternoon, the US Jobs Report will move the dial. The markets are betting on a US soft landing and the Federal Reserve ending its monetary policy tightening cycle. A pickup in wage growth and a steady unemployment rate of 3.6% could fuel the expectation of a September Fed rate hike and raise the chances of a hard landing.

However, beyond the economic calendar, investors should continue to monitor the crypto news wires. SEC v Ripple and SEC v Terraform Lab chatter, ETF updates, and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will move the dial.

Later today, Coinbase is set to ask the Court to dismiss the SEC case.