BTC Bears Eye Sub-$29,500 on Fed and SEC Fear

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, BTC joined the broader market in the red for the second session, falling 0.85% to end the day at $29,934.
• The US CPI Report and SEC v Ripple case-related news left BTC at sub-$30,000.
• However, the near-term technical indicators remain bullish, signaling a return to $31,500.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.85%. Following a 0.51% loss on Wednesday, BTC wrapped the day at $29,934. Significantly, BTC ended the day at sub-$30,000 for the first time in three sessions.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.12% to $29,899. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $29,989 before falling to a low of $29,899.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC/USD sitting below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. However, BTC sat above the 50-day ($29,557) and 200-day ($27,309) EMAs, sending bullish near and longer-term price signals. Notably, the 50-day EMA widened from the 200-day EMA, signaling further gains.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 52.31 reading reflects bullish sentiment. The RSI signals a breakout from the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band to target $31,500. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA would bring sub-$28,500 and the $27,500 – $26,850 support band into view.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, BTC remains below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. However, BTC sits above the 50-day ($29,766) and 200-day ($29,673) EMAs, sending bullish near and longer-term price signals.

Significantly, the 50-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA after the Wednesday bullish cross. A hold above the 50-day EMA would support a breakout from the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band to target $31,500. However, a BTC fall through the EMAs would bring sub-$28,500 and the $27,500 – $26,850 support band into view.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 50.44 indicates a moderately bullish stance, with buying pressure outweighing selling pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the EMAs, signaling a return to $31,500.

US CPI Report and Fed Fear Leaves XRP on the Defensive

It was a busy Thursday session, with the US economic calendar and SEC v Ripple case-related news influencing.

In the afternoon session, the US CPI Report and sticky core inflation dragged BTC and the broader market into the red.

The US annual inflation rate accelerated from 3.0% to 3.2%, while the core inflation rate softened from 4.8% to 4.7%. Significantly, the numbers were softer than expected. Economists forecast an annual and a core inflation rate of 3.3% and 4.8%, respectively. Sticky core inflation was bearish.

BTC tracked the NASDAQ Composite Index as the US equity markets also responded to the CPI Report.

However, SEC v Ripple case-related news added to the bearish sentiment as investors responded further to the latest SEC Court filing.

The Day Ahead

SEC v Ripple-related chatter, ETF updates, and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will move the dial.

However, US lawmaker chatter and SEC activity would also need consideration.

In the afternoon session, investors should consider the US PPI Report. A pickup in inflationary pressure would drive bets on a September Fed interest rate hike, which could fuel recessionary jitters.