BTC Bulls Set on a Return to $30,000 as Fed-Fueled Recession Bets Rise

Key Insights:

• BTC enjoyed a breakout Monday session, rallying by 4.57% to end the day at $29,613.
• Coinbase, Fed-fueled recession fears, and geopolitics supported a breakout session.
• The technical indicators are bullish, signaling a return to $30,000.

On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) rallied by 4.57%. Following a 1.50% gain on Sunday, BTC ended the day at $29,613. BTC held onto the $29,000 handle for the first time since June 2022.

After a bearish morning, BTC fell to an early afternoon low of $28,136. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $27,884, BTC surged to a final-hour high of $29,724. BTC broke through the Major Resistance Levels before falling back through the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $29,711 to end the session at $29,613.

Geopolitics and Coinbase Deliver Support

It was a busy start to the week, with US investors returning from the Easter holidays. Several factors likely contributed to two separate BTC breakouts on Monday.

Over the weekend, Coinbase (COIN) CEO and co-founder Brian Armstrong discussed integrating Bitcoin Lightening Network. The Coinbase CEO said,

“Lightening is great and something we’ll integrate.”

Investors continued to respond to the positive news. However, US–China and reigniting fears of a Fed-fueled recession likely contributed to the breakout session.

The Day Ahead

It is another quiet day on the US economic calendar. There are no US economic indicators for investors to digest during the afternoon session. A lack of stats will continue to leave US regulatory and lawmaker scrutiny to influence.

However, investors should consider Fed chatter ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI Report that could move the dial. The markets are betting on a 25-basis point interest rate hike, which could deliver a hard landing. A US recession could further impact the banking sector and cause a liquidity crunch, which could drive demand for BTC as a safe haven asset.

Updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case and Binance and Coinbase-related news will provide direction.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was up 0.06% to $29,630. A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to a low of $29,579 before finding support.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $29,158 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $30,179. A move through the Monday high of $29,724 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $30,746 and resistance at $31,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $32,334.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $28,591 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$28,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $27,570. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $25,982.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($28,221). The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.

A hold above S1 ($28,591) and the 50-day EMA ($28,221) would support a breakout from R1 ($30,179) to target R2 ($30,746) and $31,000. However, a fall through S1 ($28,591) and the 50-day EMA ($28,221) would bring the 100-day EMA ($27,857) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.