BTC Bulls to Target $30,500 on Hopes of a US Soft Landing

Key Insights:

• On Friday, BTC gained 2.36% to end the session at $29,526.
• US economic indicators defied the recession story, with the US Jobs Report supporting BTC and the broader crypto market.
• The technical indicators are bullish, signaling a return to sub-$30,000.

On Friday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 2.36%. Reversing a 0.66% fall from Thursday, BTC ended the day at $29,526. BTC broke through resistance at $29,500 for the first time in five sessions.

After a bullish morning, BTC fell to a US Job Report-fueled early afternoon low of $28,816. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $28,559, BTC rose to a late afternoon high of $29,691. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $29,270 to test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $29,697 before easing back.

US Jobs Report Eases Recessionary Jitters but Refuel Fed Fear

It was a busy Friday session, with the US Jobs Report supporting a bullish afternoon.

Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 253k in April versus a forecasted 180k increase. In March, nonfarm payrolls rose by 165k. Significantly, average hourly earnings were up 4.4% year-over-year versus 4.3% in March. Economists forecast average hourly earnings to increase by 4.2%.

As a result of the better-than-expected NFP number, the US unemployment rate fell from 3.5% to 3.4%. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to rise to 3.6%.

The Jobs Report eased recessionary fears, supporting riskier assets. However, market bets on a 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike in June remained subdued. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point June interest rate hike rose from 0.0% to 8.5%. The Jobs Report did wipe out bets of a June rate cut, with the chances of a rate cut falling from 9.2% to 0.0%.

The NASDAQ Composite Index responded to the US Jobs Report, rising by 2.25%, with the market reaction to the Apple Inc. (AAPL) earnings results providing further support.

From the crypto news wires, reports of the DoJ investigating Binance for breaching Russian sanctions and easing banking sector crisis concerns limited the upside.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet day ahead, with no US economic indicators or corporate earnings for investors to consider.

US lawmakers and regulatory activity will influence, with investors needing to track SEC v Ripple case updates. Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news would also move the dial.

While the US government faces the risk of a default on payments and a banking crisis, the government and regulators continue to target the digital asset space. Binance and Coinbase are significant players in the US, leading to greater scrutiny.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was up 0.22% to $29,592. A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $29,847 before easing back.

Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

BTC needs to avoid the $29,344 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $29,873 and resistance at $30,000. A move through the morning high of $29,847 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $30,219 and resistance at $30,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $31,094.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $28,998 into play. However, barring a crypto event-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$28,500 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $28,469. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $27,594.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was bullish signals. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($28,895). The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.

A hold above S1 ($28,998) and the 50-day EMA ($28,895) would support a breakout from R1 ($29,873) to give the bulls a run at R2 ($30,219) and $30,500. However, a fall through S1 ($28,998) and the 50-day EMA ($28,895) would bring the 100-day EMA ($28,807) and S2 ($28,469) into view. A BTC fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.