BTC Outlook: BlackRock Filing Drives IBIT ETF Inflows and a BTC Move Toward $70,000

Bitcoin Retakes the $65,000 Handle as Supply-Demand Trends Shift

On Thursday, September 26, BTC rallied by 3.19%, recovering from a 1.72% loss in the previous session, closing at $65,184. BTC outperformed the broader crypto market, which gained 2.94%, taking the total market cap to $2.232 trillion.

Whales and Sharks Drive BTC to $65,000

On Thursday, Santiment remarked on the BTC return to $65,000, stating,

“Bitcoin has officially reached a $65K market value for the first time since August 1st. Continued whale and shark accumulation has undeniably been a factor, preventing BTC from seeing sustained drops. $4.08B in BTC has been accumulated by 10+ BTC wallets in 6 months.”

US Economic Indicators Support Expectations of a Soft-Landing and 50 Bps Rate Cut

On Thursday, US jobless claims fueled expectations of a soft US economic landing. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined from 222k (week ending September 14) to 218k (week ending September 21).

Steady labor market conditions are pivotal for the US economy and the Fed. A deterioration in labor market conditions could impact private consumption, which contributes over 60% to the US economy. Weaker labor market conditions could signal a hard landing, a worst-case scenario for the Fed.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there was a 51.0% chance of a 50-basis point November Fed rate cut, down from 57.4% on Wednesday, September 25. Support for a 50-basis point November Fed rate cut and expectations of a soft US economic landing may continue to drive US BTC-spot ETF demand.

US BTC-spot ETF Market Sees Six-Day Inflow Streak

On Wednesday, September 25, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw net inflows of $105.9 million, down slightly from the previous day’s inflows of $136.0 million. Significantly, the US BTC-spot ETF market extended its inflow streak to six sessions on Thursday, September 26. According to Farside Investors:

• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) had net inflows of $113.8 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) reported net inflows of $74.0 million.
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) saw net inflows of $50.4 million.
• VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) reported net inflows of $22.1 million.
• However, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) bucked the trend, with net outflows of $7.7 million.

Excluding flow data for iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the US BTC-spot ETF market registered net inflows of $267.7 million.

The story of the week has been the pickup in demand for IBIT. This week, IBIT has registered inflows of $294.8 million (Mon-Wed), the highest since the week ending August 30.

IBIT’s fortunes have changed since BlackRock (BLK) filed an amendment request with the SEC, requiring Coinbase (COIN) to process BTC withdrawals within 12 hours. BlackRock filed the amendment to ease fears of Coinbase purchasing paper BTC or BTC IOUs.

The upswing in US BTC-spot ETF market inflows eased oversupply risks stemming from Mt. Gox. Supply-demand trends remain crucial for BTC, with the US BTC-spot ETF market playing a significant role in BTC’s supply-demand dynamics.

US Inflation, the Fed, and the US BTC-spot ETF Market

On Friday, September 27, investors should refocus on the US economic data. The US Personal Income and Outlays Report could influence expectations of a soft landing, the Fed rate, and US BTC-spot ETF Market flow trends.

Softer Core PCE Price Index, personal income, and spending could fuel bets on a 50-basis point Fed rate cut and a soft US landing. Investors could respond favorably in this scenario, potentially driving demand for BTC-spot ETFs. BTC could eye $70,000 on rising demand.

Investors should remain alert, with upcoming US economic data, US BTC-spot ETF flows, and Mt. Gox transfers likely to affect buyer demand for BTC and the broader market. Stay updated with our latest news and analysis to manage your BTC and crypto exposures.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC remains above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

A breakout from the September 26 high of $65,842 could support a move toward $67,500. Furthermore, a break above $67,500 may give the bulls a run at the $69,000 resistance level.

Investors should consider US economic indicators, Mt. Gox transfers, and US BTC-spot ETF market flows.

Conversely, a break below the $64,000 support level could signal a drop to $62,000. A fall through $62,000 could give the bears a run at the 50-day EMA and the $60,365 support level.

With a 64.46 14-day RSI reading, BTC may return to $67,500 before entering overbought territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH hovers above the 50-day EMA while remaining below the 200-day EMA, affirming bullish near-term but bearish longer-term price signals.

An ETH breakout from the $2,664 resistance level could give the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA. Furthermore, a break above the 200-day EMA may bring the $3,033 resistance level into play.

US ETH-spot ETF market-related updates also require consideration.

Conversely, an ETH fall through the 50-day EMA could bring the $2,403 support level into play.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 58.53, indicates an ETH rise to the 200-day EMA before entering overbought territory.