BTC Price Forecast: BlackRock ETF Dominance Drives Bullish Momentum

BTC Holds at $101k on Strong Demand Trends

On Saturday, December 14, BTC slipped by 0.13%, partially reversing a 1.47% gain from Friday, closing at $101,261. BTC successfully held above the $100k level, marking a key psychological support.

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Flows Bolster BTC Demand

The US BTC-spot ETF market continued its impressive streak on Friday, with net inflows of $428.9 million. For the week, total net inflows reached $2,167.1 million, supporting BTC’s return to $102k on Saturday.

According to Farside Investors:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reported weekly net inflows of $1,514.3 million in the week ending December 13.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net inflows of $594.8.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust had net inflows of $144.6 million.

BlackRock’s (BLK) IBIT continued leading the charge, underscoring its status as a dominant player in the ETF space. Since launching on January 11, IBIT has reported total net inflows of $35,883 million, significantly outpacing Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s (GBTC) outflows of $21,045 million.

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas quoted BlackRock’s Jay Jacobs:

“We’re really just at the tip of the iceberg with Bitcoin and especially ethereum. Just a tiny fraction of our clients own ($IBIT and $ETHA) so that’s what we’re focused on (vs launching new altcoin ETFs)”

BTC Demand Outlook Remains Bullish

Looking ahead, BTC demand could surge as investors look for BTC-linked ETFs. Mike Venuto of white label Tidal noted:

“Every options strategy you can think of is going to be tied to Bitcoin, Nvidia, Tesla, and MicroStrategy in ETFs. It’s coming.”

The shift in sentiment toward BTC-linked products aligns with Trump’s pro-crypto agenda and election win.

Progress toward a US strategic BTC reserve could establish the US government as a BTC ‘HODLER.’ This would mitigate oversupply risk, further tilting the supply-demand balance in BTC’s favor.

BTC Price Outlook Tied to ETF Demand and SBR Progress

BTC price trends will likely depend on ETF flows, new BTC-linked product launches, and US government activity. Continued BTC-spot ETF market inflows, regulatory clarity, and progress toward an SBR could drive BTC toward $120k.

Conversely, any US government BTC transfers or a sharp fall in demand for BTC-spot ETFs may trigger oversupply concerns, potentially pulling BTC below $95k.

This week, the Fed interest rate decision, FOMC economic projections, and FOMC press conference need consideration. A hawkish Fed rate cut may temper BTC demand, though the incoming administration’s plans for an SBR remain crucial.

Dive deeper into the influence of BTC-spot ETF market flows on price action. Follow our analysis and forecasts to manage crypto-related risks.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC sits well above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), sending bullish price signals.

A return to December 5’s all-time high of $103,630 could signal a move toward $110k. A break above $110k may enable the bulls to target $120k.

Investors should consider trends in spot ETF market-related news, US government BTC movements, and Trump-related news.

Conversely, a break below $95,000 will likely signal a drop toward the $90,742 support level. A fall through the $90,742 support level may bring the $86,263 support level into play.

With a 64.58 14-day RSI reading, BTC could break above its all-time high of $103,630 before entering overbought territory (RSI above 70).

Ethereum Analysis

ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, remains comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. The EMAs affirm bullish price signals.

An ETH return to December 6’s high of $4,094 could support a move toward $4,150. Furthermore, a break above $4,150 may enable the bulls to target $4,300.

ETH-spot ETF inflows supported a return to $4,000. The US ETH-spot ETF market reported weekly net inflows of $854.8 million, driving ETH demand.

Conversely, an ETH break below the $3,563 support level could enable the bears to target the $3,287 support level.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 60.99, suggests ETH may climb to December 6’s high of $4,094 before entering overbought territory. (RSI above 70).

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