BTC Sees First Quarterly Gain Since Q4 2021

Key Insights:

• It was a bullish end to a bullish quarter, with BTC rising by 1.57% to end Friday at $28,460.
• US economic indicators supported an afternoon breakout, with investor hopes of a Ripple victory in the SEC v Ripple case also delivering support.
• The technical indicators are bullish, with $30,000 in view.

On Friday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.57%. Reversing a 1.14% loss from Thursday, BTC ended March up 23% to $28,460. It was an impressive first quarter, with BTC surging by 71.8%. Notably, it was the first quarterly gain since Q4 2021.

After a choppy morning, BTC fell to a mid-afternoon low of $27,504. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $27,408, BTC responded to softer US inflation numbers, rallying to a session high of $28,651. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $28,902, BTC eased back to end the day at $28,460.

US Economic Indicators and Hopes of a Ripple Win Deliver Support

On Friday, US economic indicators drove demand for riskier assets, with inflation in the spotlight.

The Core PCE Price Index increased by 4.6% versus a forecasted 4.7%. In January, the Index increased by 4.7%. Month-on-month, the Index rose by 0.3% versus a forecasted 0.4%.

The US Indexes responded to the softer inflation figures, with the NASDAQ Composite Index rising by 1.74%.

Investors brushed aside regulatory jitters at the end of the quarter. Hopes of a Ripple victory in the ongoing SEC v Ripple case provided support. With the SEC and Gary Gensler targeting the digital asset space with greater scrutiny, investors could be hanging their hats on a Ripple win to end the reign of regulation by enforcement.

The Day Ahead

With no external market forces to consider, investors will likely continue to respond to the US economic indicators from Friday.

However, the markets should monitor the crypto news wires for updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case. Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will also move the dial.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was flat at $28,460. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $28,551 before easing back.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $28,205 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $28,906. A move through the Friday high of $28,651 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $29,352 and resistance at $30,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $30,499.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $27,759 into play. However, barring a crypto event-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$27,500 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $27,058. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $25,911.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($27,810). The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.

A hold above the 50-day EMA ($27,810) would support a breakout from R1 ($28,906) to target R2 ($29,352) and $30,000. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($27,810) and S1 ($27,759) would bring S2 ($27,058) and the 100-day EMA ($27,034) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.