Crude Oil Faces Bearish Pressure, While Natural Gas Finds Support

WTI crude oil (CL) price decline reflects growing concerns over rising Russian supply. Traders expect increased Russian oil exports if a partial ceasefire leads to eased sanctions. This expectation has kept prices under pressure, with WTI crude hovering around $67 per barrel. Despite ongoing geopolitical risks, supply-side factors continue to dominate market sentiment.

On the other hand, US inventory data adds another layer of complexity to oil price movements. The chart below shows that the crude stockpiles have continued to increase for the past few weeks. This increment suggests weaker domestic demand or higher production levels. However, the decline in gasoline and distillate stocks indicates steady fuel consumption. This mixed picture prevents a sharp price collapse but does little to offset the bearish impact of Russian supply concerns.

Moreover, tensions in the Middle East remain a counterbalance to the bearish sentiment. The continued conflicts in Yemen and Gaza indicate risks to oil supply routes, particularly in the Red Sea. Any escalation involving Iran or its proxies could trigger a price rebound. While traders focus on potential supply growth from Russia, they remain wary of geopolitical shocks that could tighten the market unexpectedly.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

Oil Daily Chart – Bearish Pressure

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price has broken the triangle pattern and is trending lower. After breaking below the triangle at $68, the price is consolidating. This consolidation after the breakout indicates bearish pressure. Therefore, a break below the $65.30 level may lower WTI prices.

Oil 4-Hour Chart – Falling Wedge Pattern

The 4-hour chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price trades within a channel formation inside a falling wedge pattern. The price rebounds from the support of this channel toward the resistance at $70. This resistance aligns with the falling wedge’s resistance line. The consolidation within the channel highlights bearish price action. However, a break above $70 will negate the bearish pressure and indicate an upward rally in WTI crude oil prices.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Ascending Channel

The correction in natural gas (NG) prices has found support around $4 and initiated a rebound. The price trades within an ascending channel pattern and looks poised for further upside. It remains above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating a bullish trend. A correction in natural gas is considered a buying opportunity for traders and investors.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Ascending Channel

The 4-hour chart for natural gas shows the formation of an ascending channel, where the price is trading within a bullish trend. Strong support for natural gas lies around $3, aligning with the ascending channel’s support.

US Dollar Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily – Bearish Pressure

The daily chart for the US Dollar Index shows it has reached the support level of 103.50 and remains bearish. The consolidation around this level and failed rebound attempts suggest that the index may break lower. A confirmed breakout below 103.50 could trigger another drop to 100.65.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Bearish Pressure.

The bearish pressure on the US dollar is also evident in the 4-hour chart, where the index consolidates within the orange zone. The index failed to break out of this zone and continued to decline.