Crude Oil News Today: Underpinned by Falling Inventories, Weaker Dollar

Oil Market Update: Prices Climb as Inventory Drops and Dollar Weakens

Crude oil prices are edging higher on Wednesday, buoyed by the anticipation of rising demand tied to a weakening U.S. dollar and a decrease in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories. This development occurs as traders also consider the potential impact of forthcoming U.S. inflation data on the overall economic environment.

At 10:01 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $78.20, up $0.18 or +0.23%.

Inventory Insights

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), U.S. crude oil stockpiles dropped significantly by 3.104 million barrels for the week ending May 10. This reduction in reserves is further supported by a fall in gasoline inventories by 1.269 million barrels, though distillates did see a rise by 673,000 barrels. Market sentiment is bolstered by expectations of further inventory drawdowns, as noted by ANZ Research, indicating sustained support for oil prices in the near term.

Demand Trends

The International Energy Agency (IEA) adjusted its 2024 oil demand growth forecast downward by 140,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million bpd, primarily due to sluggish demand in developed OECD countries. Despite this, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintains a more optimistic forecast, expecting a demand increase of 2.25 million bpd. The conflicting views from these major agencies highlight the ongoing uncertainty in global oil demand projections.

Geopolitical and Economic Factors

Externally, the market is influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic policies. The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) release is pending and is crucial for indicating future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. Moreover, China’s recent stimulus measures, amounting to 1 trillion yuan to rejuvenate its economy, the world’s largest oil importer, further complicate the global oil price dynamics.

Supply Concerns

Additionally, Canadian oil supply is under threat from a large wildfire approaching Fort McMurray, a key hub for Canada’s oil sands production. This has sparked concerns about potential disruptions in supply, reminiscent of the impacts seen during similar fires in 2016.

Short-Term Market Forecast

In the short term, oil prices are expected to remain volatile with a bullish bias due to reduced inventories and potential supply disruptions. However, the market is likely to shift towards a bearish stance post-2Q24, influenced by increasing non-OPEC supply and an anticipated decrease in demand, according to industry analysts. The upcoming CPI data and adjustments in U.S. monetary policy will play crucial roles in shaping the oil market’s path forward.

Technical Analysis

Light crude oil futures are consolidating for a ninth session, indicating investor indecision and impending volatility. The chart pattern also suggests traders are waiting for some news.

Currently, the market is glued to the 200-day moving average at $78.66. This indicator is controlling the long-term direction of the market.