The crude oil market has shown itself to be somewhat stagnant during the trading session on Tuesday, as we have rallied a bit, but very little compared to the previous couple of days.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has bounced a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, as we are hanging around and trying to figure out where we are going to go next. All things being equal, the market is currently between the 50-Day EMA underneath, and the 200-Day EMA above. As we continue to bounce around between these 2 moving averages, it suggests that we could see a serious amount of volatility in this area.
That makes quite a bit of sense considering that the market is reacting to OPEC continuing to cut production, and of course the Americans who have completely wiped out their “Strategic Petroleum Reserve”, and will be jumping into the market for what could be years. However, at the same time we have a major recession ahead, and that could cause downward pressure. I think in the short term, we bounce around between these 2 moving averages.
Brent markets of course are doing very much the same, sitting still on Tuesday as we are trying to figure out what to do with oil in general. As we continue to bounce around between these 2 major moving averages, it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see confusion. Keep an eye on the $80 level, it is obviously an area that would attract a lot of attention as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. Expect a lot of noise in that area, but if we were to turn around a break above the $80 level, that could open up a move to break above the 200-Day EMA.
On the other hand, if the market were to break down below the 50-Day EMA, then it’s likely that we could drop down to the $72 level. All things being equal, I suspect that you’re going to see a lot of noisy behavior, so keep your position size reasonable as there is a large amount of volatility just waiting to happen, and therefore it’s possible that we could see a lot of noisy behavior and frustrating trading.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.