Crude oil markets have initially fallen during the trading session on Monday, only to turn around and show signs of life again. That being said, it looks like we are still consolidating.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market initially fell on Monday only to turn around and show signs of life. It looks like we are going to continue to consolidate in a relatively tight range, perhaps building up enough inertia for a bigger move. Looking at this chart, we are clearly in a situation where we are trying to figure out what to do with ourselves next, and possibly forming a little bit of a triangle. It is a symmetrical triangle, which suggests that there is no clear winner at the moment.
However, when you look at the longer-term charts, the $65 level underneath offers a significant amount of support, while the $82.50 level is significant resistance. That might be the summer range this year, which is typical for this market to fall into. Regardless, choppiness is probably something that you are going to see going forward.
The Brent markets have also shown signs of support, but also signs of hesitation. That being said, it does look a little weaker than the WTI market, and therefore I suspect you should keep an eye on this grade of crude oil before putting too much money into the markets overall. If it starts to fall apart, it might drag the WTI market down with it, and it’s probably worth noting that the $70 level underneath is significant support. On the other hand, if we turn around and take out the $77.50 level, we will then start to pressure the 50-Day EMA, which of course is a technical indicator that a lot of people pay attention to. After that, then would come the $80 level.
I suspect that we are trying to fall into a summer range over here as well, with perhaps $85 being the ceiling above, and the $70 level being the floor below. I expect a lot of noisy behavior over the course of the summer, but I think most of the big moves have already been made. This will more or less be a lot of choppy back and forth as weak wind in his general vicinity.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.