Crude oil markets have been rather strong over the last couple of weeks, and now have broken above the neckline of an inverted head and shoulders pattern.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has gapped to the upside on Wednesday, as we continue to see energy pick up again. That being said, the question is whether or not the China reopening story will be enough to send the market higher, or if the overall downtrend will continue as the rest of the world is slowing down. It is probably worth noting that the 200-Day EMA is near the $86 level, and that is roughly about where the “measured move” of the inverted head and shoulders reaches towards.
Another thing to keep in mind is that Chinese exports have fallen quite sharply, not only to the United States but also to the European Union, so that lends more credence to the idea of a lack of demand problem being more systemic. Could be a short-term bounce though.
Brent markets also broke above the neckline of an inverted head and shoulders, therefore it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see a little bit more upward pressure. Given enough time, the 200-Day EMA comes into the picture at the $91 level, so pay close attention to that as well, as it is a significant indicator that a lot of people will pay attention to. Ultimately, I like the idea of fading this rally, but short-term traders may be able to take advantage of this move if we do in fact continue to see this type of momentum based upon the China reopening story. Brent will be a little bit more affected by China, so this might be the place to be as opposed to WTI.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.